Overview of How to Bet College Bowl Games

Betting bowl games is different than betting college football during the regular season. Keep an eye out for which team “really wants to be there.” Teams coming off a disappointing season or disappointing conclusion to the season may lack motivation. Here’s a few things to keep an eye on:

Coaching:

Coaches treat their bowl game as a must win game. Thus, teams gamble more often by using more trick plays and going for it on 4th down. Also, if a coach has an NFL prospect, the coach will often try to make that player “look good” for the NFL scouts.

Underdogs & Overs:

Historically speaking the underdogs cover in bowl games. Therefore, if you are bored on Wednesday night of bowl week and feel like getting action on the game, but you have no idea which team to bet on, lean toward the underdog.

In general I lean towards the over in bowl games for a couple reasons. First, coaches and teams never say die in bowl games. Second, as mentioned before, coaches are willing to roll the dice a little more often, trick plays, etc. Third, tackling in bowl games tends to suck because of the long lay offs. Finally, if the game happens to go to overtime the game will almost definitely go over. HOWEVER, this year I will have to adjust this strategy somewhat because of the new clock rules implemented this season in college football.

In an attempt to make the bowl guide more manageable, I’ve divided it into three sections: Games I Like, Games I Have an Opinion On, and Games I Wouldn’t Touch with Maske’s Money.

GAMES I LIKE

Las Vegas Bowl BYU (-4) v. Oregon O/U 60
Thursday, December 21st - ESPN 8 PM

BYU has rolled off 9 straight wins on their way to winning the Mountain West Conference. QB John Beck has 30 TD passes this season and the team averages 36.7 points per game.

Oregon has lost 3 straight games coming into this game. Oregon averages 31.3 ppg but more importantly they give up 25.6 ppg.

I like both BYU -4 points and Over 60 in this game. I would not be surprised if BYU gets close to 50 in this game.

New Mexico Bowl New Mexico (-3.5) v. San Jose St. O/U 48.5
Saturday, December 23rd - ESPN 4:30 PM

New Mexico finished 6-6 this season, having played 6 games decided by 6 points or less. New Mexico had a 3-3 record in those games. New Mexico’s offense is well balanced with RB Ferguson having gained 1132 yards, WR Brown having gained 784, and WR Smith having gained 787 yards this season.

San Jose St. finished the season with 8-4 record, but was only 2-3 on the road. San Jose St. also has a well balanced offense with RB Davis having gained 984 yards, WR Jones having gained 787 yards, and WR Broussard having gained 738 yards on the season.

This game is a home game for New Mexico. While San Jose St. has not played that well on the road this year, I think San Jose St. is the more talented team. I expect New Mexico to play well at home and this game to be very close. I like the points in this game but I would not recommend taking San Jose St. straight up.

Armed Forces Bowl Utah (-1.5) v. Tulsa O/U 50
Saturday, December 23rd - ESPN 8 PM

Tulsa limps into this game having only won 1 of their last 4 games. Don’t be fooled by Tulsa’s impressive stat of only allowing 19.8 ppg. In the their three losses, to less than respectable opponents, leading up to this game the Tulsa defense gave up 27, 41, & 34 points.

Utah has won 3 of their last 4 coming into this game. Their offense has explosive potential, having scored over 30 points 7 times this season. QB Brett Ratliff has thrown 22 TD passes against only 8 picks.

I cannot figure out why the line in this game is only 1.5 points. That scares me. Everything points to Utah being able to outscore Tulsa. I would lean toward the over as well, but I am not sure if Tulsa will uphold their end of the bargain.

Hawaii Bowl Hawaii (-8) v. Arizona St. O/U 74
Sunday, December 24th - ESPN 8 PM

After winning 3 straight games to start the season, Arizona St. finished 4-5. Arizona St. is traditionally known for throwing the ball all over the field, however this season their most consistent offense threat has been RB Torain, who has gained 1069 yards this season.

Hawaii had won 9 straight games before losing to Oregon St. 35-32 to finish the season. Hawaii QB Colt Brennan has put up ridiculous numbers this season with 4990 yards passing and 53 TDs. Hawaii averages 47.3 ppg but their defense also gives up points. The defense has given up over 30 points 6 times this season.

This is a home game for Hawaii. Playing at Hawaii is difficult because of the time change and long flight. Traditionally, when Vegas makes a spread 8 points, the line entices the public to take the points, but the favorite covers.

I expect Hawaii to win this game and cover the points. I will take Hawaii and I would lean toward the over, but probably not play it.

Texas Bowl Rutgers (-7.5) v. Kansas State O/U 45
Thursday, December 28th - NFL Network 8 PM

Throw out the numbers in this game also. Rutgers might have one of the best coaches in the country, but all they can do is run the ball and play defense. That does not bode well for them to beat a frisky Kansas St. team by more than a touchdown.

There is a special gambling angle to this game: the Rutgers bandwagon. A ton of regular gamblers jumped on early and have been betting and winning all season with the Knights. Vegas knows that Rutgers has been the gambler’s delight and has adjusted the line appropriately.

Remember the maxim, we like the underdogs in bowl games. Kansas St. is the clear play here.

Music City Bowl Clemson (-10) v. Kentucky O/U 58
Friday, December 29th - ESPN 1 PM

After a fast start Clemson finished the season 1-3. In the second half of the season Clemson QB Will Proctor played horrible. Clemson will rely on their two headed monster at RB led by James Davis who has gained 1134 yards and freshmen stud C.J. Spiller who has gained 914 yards this season.

Kentucky can’t run the ball to save their life, but they throw it pretty good. Kentucky QB Andre Woodson better watch out for All-American DE Gaines Adams. Kentucky’s season consisted of getting beaten up by the good teams on their schedule and beating the weak opponents on their schedule.

Clemson should be able to run all over a Kentucky defense that averages giving up 29.1 ppg. However, I think Kentucky will be able to move the ball through the air with some success against Clemson’s secondary.

I really like the over in this game but I think that 10 points is a little too much to play Clemson, I will avoid picking a side in this one.

Sun Bowl Oregon State (-3.5) v. Missouri O/U 52.5
Friday, December 29th - CBS 2 PM

Oregon St. finished the season winning 7 out of their last 8, including impressive victories over USC, Oregon, and at Hawaii. Oregon St. relies heavily on top RB Yvenson Bernard who has gained over 1200 yards this season and star WR Sammie Stroughter who has also gained over 1200 this season.

Missouri started fast with 6 straight wins, but finished the season 2-4. Their defense has played well this season only giving up 17.9 ppg and only giving up over 30 points once this season. On offense expect QB Chase Daniel to throw the ball all over the place, having thrown for 3197 yards and 26 touchdowns this season.

Despite Missouri’s tough defense, I expect that both teams will be able to move the ball up and down the field in this game. Oregon St. finished the season scoring over 30 points in 5 out of their last 6 games. I like the Over 52.5 points in what should be a close game.

Insight Bowl Texas Tech (-6.5) v. Minnesota O/U 65.5
Friday, December 29th - NFL Network 7:30 PM

Texas Tech loses to good teams and beats bad teams. They throw the ball all over the place all game long. QB Graham Harrell has thrown for over 4110 yards and 36 TDs. That is all you really need to know about them.

The question is whether you think that Minnesota is a good team or not? They are 6-6. They lost all their games against ranked opponents by at least 14 points. Minnesota’s defense allows 24.5 ppg.

I expect Texas Tech to simply outscore Minnesota in this game, giving 6.5 in this game is like giving 3 points in a normal game. I will lay the points. I will avoid the Over because I am not convinced that Minnesota can uphold their end of the bargain.

Champs Sports Bowl Purdue (pick) v. Maryland O/U 52.5
Friday, December 29th - ESPN 8 PM

Purdue scores points really well, but they also give up points. Purdue averages 27.5 ppg and gives up 26.9 ppg. They are led by QB Curtis Painter who has thrown for 3721 yards and 21 TDs this season.

After beating two cream puffs to start the season, Maryland won 5 games by a combined 17 points, including two 1 point victories over Clemson and Miami. Maryland then lost their last 2 games of the season to Boston College and Wake Forest.

Maryland plays close games, but I think Purdue’s edge in playmakers on offense will win out in this game. I pick Purdue.

Meineke Car Care Bowl Boston College (-6) v. Navy O/U 47
Saturday, December 30th - ESPN 1 PM

Navy played two decent opponents all season (Rutgers & Notre Dame) and lost both games. Navy runs the ball almost every single play; they have only attempted 42 passes all year.

Boston College features a ball control short passing attack that QB Matt Ryan executes well. Boston College’s coach Tom O’Brien is leaving for N.C. State. Boston College’s defense is extremely stingy only giving up 15 ppg.

Everything in this game points to a low scoring affair, I think that the under is the clear play here, so I will take it.

Chick-fil-A Bowl Virginia Tech (-3) v. Georgia O/U 38
Saturday, December 30th - ESPN 8 PM

Georgia finished the season strong with wins over Auburn and Georgia Tech. Georgia’s offense has been dismal all season with several changes at QB. Georgia’s defense and special teams have been good as usual. The defense only gives up 17.1 ppg.

Virginia Tech won their last 6 games of the season, all in decisive fashion. They were clearly the best team in the ACC this season but could not qualify for the ACC championship game because of an early season stumble against Georgia Tech. Coach Beamer came into this season emphasizing special teams and the team responded. The defense is also among the best in the country only giving up 9.3 ppg.

Despite Georgia’s strong finish, Virginia Tech seems to be the clear play in this one. Virginia Tech’s defense should be able to completely shut down Georgia’s offense, so covering three points should not be a problem.

MPC Computers Bowl Miami (-3) v. Nevada O/U 43
Sunday, December 31st - ESPN 7:30 PM

A friend called me up the second he saw this line and asked if I had already bet on Nevada straight up. When I asked him why, he explained to me that:

“Nevada’s offense is good and something that Miami has never seen before. Miami’s program has been cloaked in controversy this season. Miami will not be motivated to play in freezing cold Boise, while Nevada will be extremely motivated to get a win over a big name program like Miami.”

I like his reasoning so I will take Nevada straight up to beat Miami on the blue turf.

Outback Bowl Tennessee (-4.5) v. Penn State O/U 41
Monday, January 1st - ESPN 11 AM

Tennessee’s most impressive win of the season came in their first game when they blew out Cal. In their last 4 games they lost to LSU & Arkansas before beating Vanderbilt & Kentucky. Tennessee’s offense is led by WR Robert Meachem who has 1265 yards and 11 TDs on the season.

Penn St. won 4 of their last 5 games to close the season. Penn St.’s offense is nothing too exciting except for RB Tony Hunt who has gained over 1200 yards this season. Penn St.’s defense has been solid all year only giving up 14.8 ppg, led by the best LB in the country Paul Posluszny.

I think that Penn St. will pressure TN QB Erik Ainge and shut down the TN running attack. However, I am not real confident in Penn St.’s offense. I expect this to be a hard nosed defensive battle. I like Under 41 points.

Cotton Bowl Auburn (-2) v. Nebraska O/U 45
Monday, January 1st - FOX 11:30 PM

Despite Auburn’s good record and outstanding defense their offense severely underachieved. Kenny Irons only gained 821 yards after getting lots of preseason Heismann hype. Brandon Cox has been erratic at QB and turned the ball over at inopportune times.

Nebraska has played pretty consistently all season. QB Zac Taylor seems to have really taken control of Nebraska’s West Coast offense that averages 31.8 ppg. Taylor has thrown for over 3000 yards and has 25 TDs.

I really like the way that Nebraska has played this season and I like Bill Callahan’s ability to game plan during a long lay off. I will take Nebraska in the upset in this one straight up.

Capital One Bowl Arkansas (-1.5) v. Wisconsin O/U 45
Monday, January 1st - ABC 1 PM

After winning 10 straight games, Arkansas ended the season losing back to back games to LSU and Florida. Arkansas has had trouble deciding on a QB, bouncing back and forth between Mitch Mustain & Casey Dick. Their strength is the ground game with Heismann trophy finalist RB Darren McFadden as well as RB Felix Jones who has gained over 1000 yards this season.

Wisconsin went from being underrated this season to being overrated. Wisconsin did beat Purdue and Penn St., but other than that they rolled to an 11-1 record by beating inferior opponents. RB P.J. Hill has been great gaining over 1500 yards.

I expect Arkansas to win this one in a very well played game. I think Darren McFadden having a couple weeks to get healthy will really benefit Arkansas. I will take Arkansas in this one.

Sugar Bowl LSU (-9) v. Notre Dame O/U 55.5
Wednesday, January 3rd - FOX 8 PM

LSU has won 6 straight games including wins over Tennessee and Arkansas. LSU’s offense averages 33.1 ppg and is led by QB DeMarcus Russell who has thrown for almost 2800 yards and 26 TDs. The heart of this LSU team lies with their defense that only allows 12.5 ppg.

I think the most important fact for any gambler to consider about Notre Dame is that their secondary is painfully slow and they are not getting any faster in the next month. The other important fact for any gambler to know is that when Brady Quinn gets pressured he gets happy feet.

Vegas is begging the public to bet Notre Dame and the Over with these lines. I like LSU to pressure Brady Quinn and keep Notre Dame’s offense from getting on track. I will take LSU and the Under.

BCS Championship Ohio State (-8) v. Florida O/U 47.5
Monday, January 8th - FOX 8 PM

There isn’t much you can’t say about Ohio St. this year. They have won all their games, they have Heismann trophy winner Troy Smith leading their offense and their defense only surrenders 10.4 ppg (although Michigan did drop 39 on them).

Florida’s defense has been their most consistent performer this season only giving up 13.5 ppg. Senior QB Chris Leak has started all 4 years of his career but this is only his second year in Urban Meyer’s offense. At times the offense under Leak still looks out of sync. In short yardage situations Florida mixes in backup QB Tim Tebow, who has a knack for picking up first downs with the sneak. I expect Urban Meyer to have a full bag of tricks ready for this game.

These teams have a month and a half to prepare for this game but I don’t think that Florida can improve enough to keep this game close. Ohio St. should manhandle Florida upfront and dominate this game. I like Ohio St. laying the 8.

Click here for Part II.

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