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GAMES I HAVE AN OPINION ON

Poinsetta Bowl TCU (-12) v. Northern Illinois O/U 47
Tuesday, December 19th - ESPN2 8 PM

N. Illinois RB Garrett Wolfe has exactly 1900 yards this season going into the bowl game. I have a feeling Wolfe will go over 100 in this game to break the 2000 yard plateau.

TCU has won 7 straight games over sub par competition with their most notable win coming against New Mexico 27-21.

If I had to make a decision I would take N. Illinois 12 in this game, but this is not one of my picks. A major deterrence for me in this game is that I think the public is going to be heavy on the side of Northern Illinois because Garrett Wolfe is the only household name. When the public is one side, I am almost always on the other.

Papajohns.com Bowl South Florida (-4) v. East Carolina O/U 43
Saturday, December 23rd - ESPN2 1 PM

South Florida has won 3 out of their last 4, including wins over West Virginia and Pittsburgh. The one lost came against BCS bound Louisville. South Florida has an extremely stingy defense only giving up 17.8 ppg, in an underrated Big East Conference.

ECU has won 5 out of their last 6 games. ECU only averages 22.8 ppg and only gives up 20.5 ppg.

I like this game to stay under 43 points with both team’s mediocre offenses and talented defenses, but probably not enough to pull the trigger.

Independence Bowl Oklahoma State (-2) v. Alabama O/U 51
Thursday, December 28th - ESPN 4:30 PM

Both teams were an unimpressive 6-6 this season.

Oklahoma St. lost 3 out of their last 4 games coming into this game, with their lone win coming against Baylor. Oklahoma St. finished a pathetic 3-5 in a weak Big 12 conference. The one player you need to know about on Okie St’s squad is WR Adarius Bowman who has 1131 yards receiving and 11 touchdowns this season. Alabama finished 2-6 in the SEC. They lost 4 out of their last 5 games, with their lone win coming against mighty Florida International. Then they fired their coach. Honestly though, Alabama played a tough schedule and played a lot of tough opponents close including a 1 point loss to Arkansas and a 3 point loss to Tennessee.

Neither of these teams has proved much all season. I think that Alabama would be the play in this game. The Alabama kids have the extra motivation with the coaching situation. Oklahoma St. is just playing out another mediocre season.

Pacific Life Bowl Cal (-5) v. Texas A&M O/U 52
Thursday, December 28th - ESPN 8 PM

Texas A&M has played a ton of close games this year, with 7 games being decided by one score or less. Texas A&M played a tough last three games of the season (Loss to Oklahoma 17-16, Loss to Nebraska 28-27, & Win over Texas 12-7). Texas A&M’s RB J. Lane has a nose for the end zone, having scored 19 TDs this season.

Cal has been a Jekyll and Hyde affair all season. After Lee Corso predicted Cal would win the National Championship, Cal got blown out to start the season at Tennessee. Cal then rolled off 8 straight wins and closed the season miserably by losing to Arizona & USC followed up with a win over Stanford 27-16.

Traditionally, the Holiday bowl is a wild one. There are two key questions in this game: (1) Will Texas A&M’s momentum from beating rival Texas carry over to the bowl game? (2) Will Cal’s potentially explosive offense show up or will they turn in another lackluster performance when faced with a formidable opponent?

I think Texas A&M will keep it close. I like Texas A&M and the points in this one. I also like the over because Cal’s offense will be able to score points on Texas A&M’s defense.

Alamo Bowl Texas (-11) v. Iowa O/U 53.5
Saturday, December 30th - ESPN 4:30 PM

Texas lost 2 straight games to finish the season after starting with high hopes. The team’s motivation in this game is questionable. If they come ready to play their offense can come close their season average of 36.8 ppg.

Iowa’s season was a complete disappointment. They finished the season 2-6, including 3 straight losses to Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.

If Iowa’s effort reflects the way they played this season Texas will blow them out early. If you are going to make a play Texas is the clear pick. I am wary of laying 11 points in a bowl game, especially when Iowa does have some talent.

Rose Bowl Michigan (pick) v. USC O/U 47.5
Monday, January 1st - ABC 5 PM

Michigan RB Mike Hart has been outstanding all season, having gained over 1500 yards on the ground with 14 TDs. WR Mario Manningham has big play potential averaging almost 20 yards per catch and has not shown any signs of slowing down after a mid-season knee injury.

USC had a disappointing loss to UCLA to end the season. They will need to bounce back and play a nearly flawless game to beat Michigan. USC does have the fire power to score lots of points. WRs Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett are both nearly uncoverable with 8 & 10 TDs this season, respectively.

Michigan only lost one game this season to undefeated Ohio St. I am of the opinion that Michigan is the second best team in the country. There are lots of great stats for both teams as both had extremely successful seasons, but with my feelings on Michigan, my only logical play is to take Michigan to win.

Orange Bowl Louisville (-10) v. Wake Forest O/U 51.5
Tuesday, January 2nd - FOX 8 PM

Louisville’s offense has been flat out unstoppable this season averaging a ridiculous 38.9 ppg, led by superstar QB Brian Brohm. Brohm was hurt for a few games so his numbers are not representative of his talent. He is also fortunate to have a number of talented playmakers including WR Harry Douglas who has 1100 yards and 6 TDs this season.

Wake Forest’s best weapon is their coach Jim Grobe. The guy maximizes talent better than anybody in college football. Wake Forest’s defense has played well this season only giving up 14.7 ppg. Their offense features a lot of counters and misdirection running plays that will be well executed.

I have been on the Wake Forest bandwagon all season and Jim Grobe is a scary man to doubt, but I do not think Wake can overcome the talent disparity in this game. I think Louisville will jump on Wake early and never look back. I would lay the 10 and take Louisville in this one.

International Bowl Cincinatti (-8) v. Western Michigan O/U 41.5
Saturday, January 6th - ESPN2 12 PM

Western Michigan has an 8-4 record but their only notable win is a 16-14 win over Northern Illinois. W. Michigan can run the ball a little bit with RB Mark Bonds who has gained over 1000 yards this season.

Cincinnati played an extremely tough out of conference schedule that included losses to Ohio St. and Virginia Tech. Cincinnati’s strength lies in their very talented and underrated defense, who only gives up 19.3 ppg. Cincinnati’s offense has been less than impressive this entire season.

I like the under, but I am not sure if I like it enough to pull the trigger.

GAMES I WOULD NOT TOUCH WITH MASKE’S MONEY

New Orleans Bowl Rice (-5) v. Troy O/U 52
Friday, December 22nd - ESPN 8 PM

Rice has won 6 straight coming into this one. Expect Rice’s WR Dilliard to go off in this game. He has 82 catches for 1176 yards and 20 TDs this season. Rice’s RB has 1092 yards and averages 5.3 ypc to go along with 10 TDs.

Troy’s defense is somewhat stingy. Actually, not really.

Honestly, both these teams are 7-5 and both give up more points than they score. This game is on a Friday night, so don’t waste your time. Go blow your cash on some ungrateful chick.

Motor City Bowl Central Michigan (-10) v. Middle Tennessee State O/U 51
Tuesday, December 26th - ESPN 7:30 PM

Every team Middle Tennessee St. beat this year flat out sucks. They only beat Florida International 7-6. When they did sell themselves out to Louisville, South Carolina, & Oklahoma they got embarrassed.

Central Michigan finished the season winning 7 out their last 8 games. When Central Michigan took on Boston College, Michigan, & Kentucky they performed well, only losing to BC 31-24, Kentucky 45-36, and Michigan 41-17 (this game was not a blow out). Central Michigan has a well balanced offense, led by QB Dan LeFevour who has thrown for 2869 yards and 25 TDs.

Everything on paper points to Central Michigan blowing out Middle Tennessee St, including the fact the game is being played in Detroit. I think MTSU will come out and play a spirited game. I would avoid this game for that reason and the fact that I always tend to lean toward the underdog in bowl games.

Emerald Bowl UCLA (-5) v. Florida State O/U 41
Wednesday, December 27th - ESPN 8 PM

Forget the numbers. Florida St. has underachieved all season. Weatherford/Booker/the entire offensive line has disgustingly underachieved. Bobby Bowden and his entire staff have a lot to prove. The defense has played pretty well all season only allowing 19.3 ppg.

After losing 4 straight games to Oregon, Notre Dame, Washington St., & Cal, UCLA rallied to win 3 straight games against Oregon St., Arizona St., and USC (all bowl bound teams). UCLA’s QB Patrick Cowan is extremely mobile, which could play an important factor against FSU’s fast and over-pursuing defense. Also, UCLA’s defense only gives up 17.9 ppg.

There is absolutely no reason why UCLA should not be able to shut down FSU’s offense. If you are going to bet on this game ask yourself this question: Do you think that FSU will come out and show some pride and perform up to their potential or will their offense look like they have all season? I do not recommend touching this game.

Liberty Bowl South Carolina (-6.5) v. Houston O/U 55.5
Friday, December 29th - ESPN 4:30 PM

Houston can score points. They run the most unique offense in college football rivaled only by Nevada. Senior QB Kevin Kolb has been running this offense since about the 8th grade. His numbers are really impressive; he has thrown for 3423 yards and 27 TDs.

South Carolina has played a lot of close games against tough opponents. Sidney Rice is a dominate WR if South Carolina can decide on a QB to get him the ball. Expect Steve Spurrier to have a full bag of tricks ready for this game.

I expect Houston to be able to move the ball with some success against South Carolina’s defense. I think that Houston should be able to keep this game close most of the way, but I do not like any play in this game.

Gator Bowl West Virginia (-7) v. Georgia Tech O/U 49
Monday, January 1st - CBS 1 PM

Georgia Tech’s chances in this game hinge on whether Reggie Ball can get the ball to Calvin Johnson. The problem is that Reggie Ball completes less than 50% of his passes. I think Calvin Johnson can dominate any defense but I don’t think Reggie Ball can get him the ball.

West Virginia will spread Georgia Tech out and run the ball with QB Pat White, who has gained over 1,000 yards this season and RB Steve Slaton who has gained over 1700 yards this season.

Everything points to West Virginia rolling Georgia Tech in this game, but when you give Georgia Tech DC Jon Tenuta multiple weeks to scheme, he has proven he can shut down even the highest powered offenses (ex: Notre Dame on opening weekend). I will stay away from this game out of respect for Tenuta.

Fiesta Bowl Oklahoma (-7.5) v. Boise State O/U 50.5
Monday, January 1st - FOX 8 PM

There are still rumors floating around that Adrian Peterson may play in this game. Before you even begin to consider betting on this game, you need to know what role Adrian Peterson is going to play.

GMAC Bowl Southern Miss (-6) v. Ohio O/U 41.5
Sunday, January 7th - ESPN 8 PM

Ohio won 7 straight before losing to Central Michigan in the MAC championship game. Ohio’s ball control offense is led by RB Kalvin McRae who has rushed for over 1200 yards this season. Ohio has almost no passing game to speak of.

S. Miss. won 4 straight before losing to Houston in the C-USA championship game. They like to keep the ball on the ground with star RB Damion Fletcher who has run for over 1300 yards this season.

I think that these teams are relatively evenly matched and I do not like any play in this game.

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