I’m stoked about my role here at NextRound as college football contributor/gambling advisor for the upcoming season. In order to adhere with NextRound’s corporate policy, I will attempt to incorporate as many pop culture/current female du jour references as possible. (Speaking of which, I had a really random sexual dream involving one Ms. Erin Andrews recently. She was on top, climbed off, and then conducted a mock interview in which she asked what kind of halftime-adjustments I was going to make before going doggy-style. Strange.)

Once the season starts, I will be releasing a picks column each Thursday outlining what I’ll be wagering on over the weekend and why. Hopefully, this will be a profitable venture for all involved.

Over the next few weeks, I’ll be going through each of the major conferences, giving my predicted order of finish and some thoughts to consider before the season begins. The key to successful college football wagering is finding overvalued and undervalued teams before Vegas and the betting public catches on, and betting accordingly. Hopefully, this series of articles will help in that regard.

First up, the offensively challenged ACC!

Part I: ACC Coastal

1. Miami

Optimist says: As always, the defense will be fast, aggressive, and reek of badass-ness, particularly the front seven. Javarris James looks to be a stud in the making and should give the running game the explosiveness it’s been lacking the past few seasons. The offensive line is experienced, and there’s a ton of potential in the receiving corps.

Pessimist says: Questions persist as to who will emerge at quarterback. Kyle Wright and Kirby Freeman saw extensive playing time last season, and were both underwhelming. While the offensive line has 60 combined starts, they gave up a ton of sacks and had trouble paving way for the running game. Schedule is extremely unfavorable, they play at Oklahoma and host Texas A&M out of conference, and face their three arguably toughest conference foes on the road (Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Boston College).

Overview: If the offense can simply revert back to the mean and average in the mid-20’s, there’s no reason to believe that the defense won’t hold up their end of the bargain. Even though this team went 3-5 in conference play last season, only one of those losses was in the double digits (17-7 loss to Virginia). With the exception of the Virginia loss, Miami dominated the stat sheet during all their other losses, turnover margin bringing about their demise. The key issue for Miami is to get efficient, risk-averse play from whoever the hell lines up under center. While their margin for error is slim, I still believe that this team has more talent than anyone else in the conference.

Degenerate Ramblings: While this is a team that I would be nervous laying a significant amount of points with due to offensive inconsistency, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them perform very well in the underdog role, particularly in their key late season match-up with Virginia Tech.

2. Virginia Tech

Optimist says: A ton of talent and experience returning (16 starters). Nine returning starters to a defense that has been amazingly consistent (top five nationally in scoring and total defense three years running). A healthy and consistent Brandon Ore to bring stability to the running game. In-conference schedule sets up well, as three of their toughest opponents travel to Blacksburg (Boston College, Florida State, and Miami).

Pessimist says: Extremely unreliable quarterbacking (Sean Glennon, Beamer may elect to punt in third and long situations). A measly 3.2 yards per rush average last season. This team has never responded well to preseason BCS hype.

Overview: The Hokies’ visit to Baton Rouge on September 10th looms as a season defining game and will establish their status as national contender or pretender. I have very little faith in Glennon, particularly against talented defenses. He’s fine if the defense is simply over-matched, or anytime Ore finds a rhythm, but that was a rare occurrence last season. There’s no question that the defense will give them a chance to win every game. But, just like Miami and so many other teams in this jumbled league, the margin for error is thin, and repeated stink-bomb performances from Glennon could be devastating.

Degenerate Ramblings: Virginia Tech could be a difficult team to wager on this season, not sure that there will be much line value in their favor. They’ll probably be favored in every game with the exception of LSU. However, don’t underestimate the value of their home-field advantage. I was their for their Thursday night thrashing of Clemson last season, and it was undoubtedly the best football atmosphere I’ve ever experienced.

3. Georgia Tech

Optimist says: Fifteen returning starters, this should be a much better overall team even with the loss of certified swinging-dick Calvin Johnson. Defense should once again be blitz-happy and turnover-inducing. Tashard Choice is a supremely talented and versatile back who can handle 25-30 carries a game. Oh, and did I mention that Reggie Ball is gone? Georgia Tech fans, try and keep those erections at bay.

Pessimist says: Everyone involved in the passing game is awfully young, so it’s hard to expect much consistency or predictability. Chan Gailey is still prominently involved. The fact that this imbecile got to coach in the ACC Championship game speaks to how truly awful the conference was last season.

Overview: Tech should be able to run the ball and play defense, so the main issue is whether Taylor Bennett can make plays when opposing defenses invariably overplay the run. His bowl game performance should warrant enough enthusiasm to consider Tech a potential player seeing that their defense should keep them in every game. Unfortunately, Chan Gailey’s consistent fuck-ups will–as usual–cost Tech at least two games.

Degenerate Ramblings: I’m looking very strongly at taking Tech in week one at Notre Dame if the line stays around a touchdown. This team typically plays very well on the road, probably because they have no discernible home-field advantage to speak of.

4. Virginia

Optimist says: Most returning starters in the ACC (19). Strong and talented on both the offensive and defensive fronts, should put a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Great conference schedule, they miss Florida State, Boston College, and Clemson.

Pessimist says: Their offensive skill players are–to put it lightly–extremely fucking boring and unexciting. The running game last season was inconsistent, and it looks like they lost their best receiver, Kevin Ogletree, for the season. Quarterback Jameel Sewell took care of the ball well as a freshman (only 6 interceptions), but was never a real threat to attack a defense downfield.

Overview: This team has a chance to start the season 6-1 as the early season schedule is extremely favorable. I just can’t get too excited about the Cavaliers. They have 6-6 written all over them.

Degenerate Ramblings: If Sewell and the rest of the offense can make major strides early in the season, this team could be a strong buy candidate for the second half. Frankly, I don’t plan on touching them early on. Also, Al Groh annoys the shit out of me.

5. North Carolina

Optimist says: Great hire in Butch Davis. He brought in a strong recruiting class. Joe Dailey and Cam Sexton will no longer be their starting quarterbacks.

Pessimist says: Only nine returning starters and will be starting a freshman at quarterback. This team is clearly in rebuilding mode.

Overview: Butch Davis would be a shoo-in for coach of the year if he gets this team to a bowl game, 3-4 wins seems right.

Degenerate Ramblings: Don’t be surprised to see Davis get an inspired effort from this team, particularly as the season wears on. Could be a solid option if they’re getting an inordinate amount of points.

6. Duke

Optimist says: Umm, basketball practice starts soon, right?

Pessimist says: Kill me now.

Overview: This team will go 0-12.

Degenerate Ramblings: Seriously, rule to live by: never bet on Duke.

• Check back at the same time tomorrow for Handicapping the ACC Atlantic.

  

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