The H-Man Cometh: Handicapping The Pac 10
August 27th, 2007 by The H-Man
It’s officially game week and since most of us are usually too drunk by the time west coast games start to intently watch Pac 10 football, this conference analysis is going to be somewhat abbreviated.
Pac 10 - as always, in predicted order to finish.
1. USC
Optimist Says: Return 10 of 11 starters defensively. This will be Carrol’s finest defensive product by far. John David Booty continues to progress. Cheerleaders in sweaters are way cooler than they sound.
Pessimist Says: An abundance of backfield talent, but no proven go-to guy. Receivers are young and could be unreliable. Breaking in a new offensive coordinator.
Overview: USC wasn’t nearly as dominant last year as they have been in previous seasons, evidenced by a string of one score wins against the conference’s middle class. Due to offensive inexperience this will be a more defense oriented version than previous versions. They may not be as dominant as many expect. Regardless, USC remains the cream of the crop, and if they can avoid the turnover woes from last season will be tough to beat.
2. California
Optimist Says: Senior QB Nate Longshore continues to gain more confidence under the tutelage of guru Jeff Tedford. Plenty of talent at the skill positions. No question the offense will be productive.
Pessimist Says: Lost five of their front seven. Defense struggled against the run last season and could be even worse this season. University still unable to solve hippie infestation on campus.
Overview: I don’t like this defense AT ALL. But you can’t doubt a quarterback as talented as Longshore after three years under Tedford. Cal’s offense matches up with anyone’s in the conference, and they have a better record of stability than the teams below them.
3. Oregon
Optimist Says: The offensive skill talent here also stacks up to anyone’s in the conference, including USC’s. If Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart can stay upright and in the lineup for more than a couple of games in a row, this team should be really feared. Phil Knight is rich.
Pessimist Says: Oregon has been a reliably mediocre team over the last several seasons. They always give away a handful of games they have no business losing.
Overview: This team really could go either way. Returning a senior quarterback, they could produce a balanced offense that will average well over 30 points per game. Yet on the other hand, there’s a good chance Dixon will be inconsistent again, and the defense could really struggle.
4. UCLA
Optimist Says: A shitload of returning starters. A fearsome defense that returns it’s key personnel. Assistant coaches have mad street cred.
Pessimist Says: Under Dorrell, UCLA has shown a disturbing tendency to shit the bed against piss poor teams. Offense was extremely mediocre last season.
Overview: If UCLA’s defense can simply replicate last season’s performance, QB Ben Olsen should provide enough offense to life the team out of it’s mediocre rut. However, I can’t give this team the benefit of the doubt until they show the ability to maintain consistency throughout the season.
5. Arizona State
Optimist Says: Plenty of offensive firepower. Dennis Erickson has proven ability to mold wildly productive college offenses. Extremely favorable schedule early on.
Pessimist Says: Arizona State was basically blown out by every good team they played last season. The defense is undergoing a major overhaul. It’s hard to expect much out of that unit. Dennis Erickson is 60 and looks 90. He could die at any moment.
Overview: This team will live and die by QB Rudy Carpenter. If he’s productive and can cut down on turnovers, and the running game is at lease somewhat productive, the offense should win Arizona State at least eight games.
6. Arizona
Optimist Says: The defense should be in good shape and keep the Wildcats in most games. Offense is abandoning it’s smashmouth attack for a more spread-oriented west coast offense, which should exhibit the talents of QB Willie Tuitama, who has shown the ability to produce against good defenses.
Pessimist Says: Running game was awful last season, even against lesser opponents. Mike Stoops may off himself at any given moment as he finally cracks under the pressure of continuously being compared to his brother.
Overview: The competition ahead of the Wildcats is too crowded to bank on this team making giant strides, especially considering they haven’t had a winning record since 1998. They’ll probably upset a team or two, but lose several games they shouldn’t.
7. Oregon State
Optimist Says: Offensive line returns intact and should provide stability. The beaver is always an entertaining mascot.
Pessimist Says: Passing game is in flux with departure of QB Matt Moore and the seemingly imminent departure of WR Sammie Stroughter. Defense had a poor finish to the season.
Overview: This should again be a solid team, but a young QB in a league packed to the brim with returning starters should push the Beavers to the lower half of the conference.
8. Washington State
Optimist Says: Senior QB Alex Brink will continue to be productive. Team returns some quality receivers. Some jackass with a Cougars banner travels with ESPN’s College Gameday, consistently providing a solid Saturday morning presence for the Washington State program.
Pessimist Says: Offensive line and defense broke down at the end of last season. They blew several winnable games last year and received an unforgivable thrashing from Arizona State to end their season and their bowl aspirations.
Overview: It’s hard to believe Washington State snuck into the top 25 last season before losing their final three. This may be the least talented team in the conference, and the rest of the conference has improved too much for them to make any real strides.
9. Washington
Optimist Says: This team was closer to being successful last season than people think. They only lost by six to USC and took Cal to overtime on the road.
Pessimist Says: Will be starting the youngest and most inexperience QB in the conference, and there’s no real running threat to ease the pressure. Defensive front seven didn’t hold up physically and were gashed by every decent running game they faced. This is Jim Mora Jr.’s dream job.
Overview: There’s expectation of improvement, but I think this team will struggle. The offense was the second-worst in the conference last season and probably won’t get any better with a redshirt freshman at QB.
10. Stanford
Optimist Says: Things can’t possibly go any worse than they did last season.
Pessimist Says: This was one of the worst major conference teams in college football history last season. They averaged 10.6 points per game in conference and were held to ten points or less in 9 of 12 games. Read that last sentence again. Three rushing touchdowns all season. Special teams were awful across the board. Jim Harbaugh suffers from a violent case of mouth diarrhea.
Overview: It would be a significant improvement for Stanford to win two conference games. This team has so far to go to get out of the cellar it’s not really worth a second thought at this point.
The H-Man is NextRound’s college football/sports investment contributor/guru. Contact him at info@nextround.net with any questions or comments.














Bowl Picks:
Overall Record: 9-11 (3 Unit), 8-6 (2 Unit), 7-1 (1 Unit), -2.7 Units







