It’s that time of year again! Time to drift aimlessly from your loved ones and wish excruciatingly painful deaths upon 18-year old kids under extreme physical duress! Ladies and gentlemen, start your wagers!

Recommended wagers will be classified as 1 or 2 unit plays. 1 unit will be the most common, and you can expect maybe two to three 2 unit plays per week.

Being that this is the first week, I recommend treading lightly, you degenerate bastards.

The picks:

Thursday August 30

Kent State (+3.5 to +4) v. Iowa State - One unit

I really think Kent will perform well against the number, but this is more of a play against Iowa State than anything else. People were very high on Iowa State last season since they had numerous returning starters, especially on offense. They managed to completely shit the bed, and expectations are extremely low heading into this season.

Iowa State only returns half of their starters and lose half of their lettermen. The entire offensive system is being revamped which should minimize the effectiveness of senior QB Bret Meyer as he adjusts to a completely new playbook. On the other hand, Kent returns 16 starters and played very well statistically last season. Special teams cost them a game or two, but those problems should be rectified heading into this season.

I expect Kent to win this game outright.

Saturday September 1st

California (-6) v. Tennessee - One unit

I think that Tennessee is really going to struggle early in the year, and this is about the worst game they could ask for to open the season. RB Coker won’t be playing for the Vols, which will be a big hit to the running game. I think that QB Ainge is better than people give him credit for, but he has no receivers to work with, and his offensive line has been very spotty the last two seasons. Defensively, the Vols are talented, but extremely young, particularly in the secondary.

Look for Jeff Tedford and QB Longshore to take advantage of the inexperienced secondary and make some big plays in the passing game.

Arizona State (-15) v. San Jose State - One unit

The Sun Devils pretty much handled the teams they were supposed to beat last season, easily winning each game they were a double digit favorite. There’s no question the offense will be extremely productive, returning 9 starters along with QB Carpenter. Incoming head coach Dennis Erickson has led several wildly productive offenses in his previous tenures and should look to make a statement in his first game. San Jose State reached a bowl last season, but their schedule was awful, and they were statistically dominated by every quality opponent they played.

There’s a huge talent differential between these teams, and I believe that this spread is very reasonable for those backing ASU.

Kansas (-7.5) v. Central Michigan - One unit

Kansas has performed very well under Mark Mangino as a home favorite, and that trend should continue here. They should be much more balanced offensively this season under QB Reesing. While Central Michigan won the MAC and a bowl last season, they weren’t that impressive statistically, benefiting from a huge turnover margin. They now must replace their head coach, both coordinators, and three NFL draft picks. Not an easy task for a MAC school.

Based on Central Michigan’s seemingly solid performance from last season, I think this spread is too low, and Kansas should win by double digits.

TCU (-20.5 to 21) v. Baylor - One unit

I’m not sure if people realize just how awful Baylor is. They struggled in every facet of the game, especially stopping the run. This will serve TCU well as they have a good offensive line and a nice set of RB’s. TCU’s defense is extremely underappreciated, and I’ll be shocked if Baylor does anything in this game offensively. TCU was a statistical monster last season and returns the majority of their starters.

I think that TCU is being underestimated here and should thoroughly dominate.

Leans/Opinions

Nebraska. I really like Nebraska this year, and Nevada has some key personnel losses, but I think this line has gotten a little too high. If you can get Nebraska -21 or better, I’d roll with it.

Oklahoma State. Again, I don’t quite like the spread here, but this is a decent spot for the Cowboys. Georgia has some major question marks in the trenches, especially on the offensive line. I think Oklahoma State will be productive here offensively, but this will be a test for their defense. If you can get OSU +7 or better, they’re worth a wager.

East Carolina +27.5. East Carolina’s starting QB is out, and the game will be an emotional setting for Virginia Tech, but this is too many points for Tech’s offense. ECU isn’t a bad team. They’ve performed well on the road under Skippy Holtz. The QB issues for ECU leave me a little leery.

Auburn. Kansas State is a mess right now, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them fall apart. If I had any faith at all in Auburn’s offense, this would be a certain play.

Comments and questions are welcomed. Also, I may add a play or two tomorrow, so watch out for that. Good luck this weekend.

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