The H-Man Cometh: Week 3
September 13th, 2007 by The H-Man
By no means a great week last week, but we were able to churn out a small profit going 4-3 and winning 1.6 units.
It could have been a real nice week if East Carolina had come through, but it didn’t work out that way, so we move on…
The picks:
Boston College (+7) v. Georgia Tech - Two Units
This line has moved down to 6.5 almost everywhere, so I hope our loyal readers heeded our advice and got it at +7 yesterday. If you get it at under 7, I would move it down to a one unit play. Basically, I expect this game to be extremely competitive, so having a touchdown to work with should be huge.
Georgia Tech is being considerably overvalued in my opinion. Too much stock has been put into their wins over subpar competition. Their play-calling has been and will continue to be very conservative as they’re content to let their defense and running game win games for them. The only way I see Tech winning by double digits is if their defense forces turnovers. I’ll take my chances with veteran BC QB Matt Ryan.
Southern Miss (-1) v. East Carolina - One Unit
ECU has performed very well against the number under Skip Holtz, but it looks like the lines -makers are finally catching on. Southern Miss is a better overall team than ECU. They have a consistent veteran QB and a better defense. ECU beat Southern Miss on the road last year, so there’s no way that Southern Miss will take them lightly.
And, as we know, ECU’s kicker is fucking atrocious.
Navy (-7) v. Ball State - One Unit
This is Navy’s first home game, and I expect them to rebound from their previous game struggles in a big way. Navy struggled at Rutgers, but I think Rutgers is legit, so I don’t view that as a horrendous loss. Navy’s offense is beginning to gel, and I expect a solid performance from them.
Navy’s defense is young and has much to prove, but they’re facing an extremely impotent offense in Ball State, and I just don’t see Ball State being able to keep up.
UNC (-3) v. Virginia - One Unit
This play is an indictment against UVA and Al Groh more than anything else. I would compare UVA’s offense to a paint-drying contest, but that would be a disservice to dried paint. There’s just no playmakers here. They didn’t crack 100 yards against Wyoming until the final drive. Wyoming!
Meanwhile, UNC seems to be rejuvenated under excellent head coach Butch Davis. The passing offense has shown the ability to make some plays down the field thanks to much improved QB play. Basically, there’s a good chance that UVA comes out flat in this one, but I don’t think that UNC will.
Other:
I really want to pull the trigger on Vandy against Ole Miss, but am waiting on the status of Vandy starting QB Nickson. If there’s any indication that he’s playing, and the line stays under six, that will definitely be a play. I’ll try to get the word out on that by tomorrow, so stay tuned.
As always, comments and questions welcomed. Good luck this weekend.
The H-Man is NextRound’s college football/sports investment contributor/guru. Contact him at info@nextround.net with any questions or comments.
Bowl Picks:
Overall Record: 9-11 (3 Unit), 8-6 (2 Unit), 7-1 (1 Unit), -2.7 Units
September 13th, 2007 at 2:10 pm
Is Bama that good? Should they really be favored by 3 points against a 16th ranked Arkansas? What do you think about that game?
September 13th, 2007 at 2:26 pm
I think the Bama-Arkansas spread is pretty much dead on. Arkansas most likely won’t have WR Monk playing, and that’s a big blow. I would actually lean to Bama, should be your typical low-scoring SEC game that probably will be decided by turnovers.
September 13th, 2007 at 2:43 pm
Southern miss pretty good? I know they beat a down ncstate last year by a lot.
What do you think about arizona state this week?
September 13th, 2007 at 2:49 pm
Expect Nickson to play against Ole Miss. He’s taking a majority of the snaps at practice and he is moving pretty good. Word is that it was just a tweak, nothing too serious.
September 13th, 2007 at 2:54 pm
Cope went to Vandy & he is huge homer… but his Vandy info is always dead on.
September 13th, 2007 at 2:55 pm
Thanks for the info Cope.
Charez, I don’t think there’s a lot of line value with Arizona State.
September 13th, 2007 at 3:37 pm
H-man what about that line on Clemson. I hear they have a gun slinger for a QB this year. He set a school record last week for TDs. How can this not be a 2-Unit
September 13th, 2007 at 3:42 pm
TR, Clemson plays Div. I-AA Furman this weekend, therefore no line. Way to go.
September 13th, 2007 at 4:13 pm
H-man any thoughts on the WVA game tonight, I need to make it interesting.
September 13th, 2007 at 4:26 pm
H-Man, what do you think on the over-under for UF-UT
September 13th, 2007 at 4:47 pm
For those of you that keep “pining” for H-Man advice. Let me let you in on something. H-Man handicaps the games and spreads where he sees an opportunity. This is not a “Dear Abbey” column. Right now he is 9-3 on HIS picks. If you want to put a quarter on the WVU/MD game to help you stay awake tonight, do so. But leave H-Man to pick his own games. If he liked ASU or Clemson or Bama (Patrick) then he would tell you. Quit getting in my boys head, and let him do what he does best, which is NOT listen to us!! Otherwise, write into Cosmo if you need advice on picks or your love life…
September 13th, 2007 at 5:10 pm
suck my balls security gaurd
September 13th, 2007 at 5:11 pm
Jesse, that’s a scary game to bet, but at gunpoint I’d go with Maryland(don’t ask me why)
Gordy, definite lean to the over there, and it actually appears to be dropping. If you can get 54 or better, go with it.
Oh, and sorry about my security guard. He gets a little overzealous sometimes. . .
September 13th, 2007 at 5:11 pm
Jesse got punked!
September 13th, 2007 at 6:14 pm
We would first like to say that NextRound is in no way associated with the H-Man’s Security Guard. He is an independent contractor.
Secondly, H-Man will answer questions and provide suggestions if he can, but he is a very busy dude, so please understand if he is unable to provide a response.
Thanks, Management.
September 14th, 2007 at 9:39 am
i can’t believe i just bet on Navy…in H-man we trust.
Any word on Vandy’s QB? I know Cope has the inside scoop, but is the #1 starting?
btw, went to the UMD/WVU game last night. Never been around so much gutter trash in my life. both sets of fans are seriously the scourge of the earth. I felt like i needed to be disinfected after.
September 14th, 2007 at 2:49 pm
Did the security guard scare away people from commenting?
September 14th, 2007 at 3:39 pm
Let’s go ahead and go with Vanderbilt -5 for one unit. It appears as if Nickson will play, but even if not, Vandy still has a good shot of covering. Ole Miss is fucking terrible.
That’s all I’ve got for this week, a pretty light card, but nothing else really jumps out at me.
September 14th, 2007 at 3:49 pm
just read through all this and I got to give love to TR….
September 14th, 2007 at 4:59 pm
Nickson is officially a go. The Vanderbilt coach made statements in the paper this morning barring some problem in warm-ups, he will start. There is also some indication that it may have been a deep butt/thigh bruise instead of a hammy.
September 14th, 2007 at 7:12 pm
Butt bruises can linger, just ask the Security Guard.
Pretty sure Nickson will pull through it though.
September 14th, 2007 at 8:31 pm
Booth, come on. You only complained about the butt bruise my hips gave you for about 12 hours. Just like C Block, eh boys?? In H-Man we trust INDEED!
September 15th, 2007 at 11:53 am
Why the F is that no talent, gel head, ass clown, Jesse Palmer on ESPN Gameday? I got a nomination for next weeks punch in the face Friday. WHAT A DOUCHE!
I like the FLA over even if it rains. Now excuse me, I need pop two pain killers and chug a six pack so I can try to enjoy the UVA vs UNC game.