Search For A NFL Handicapper: Week 3
September 21st, 2007 by NextRound
Let the Contest Begin!
We seriously don’t believe that it’s possible to consistently win money gambling on the NFL. H-Man doesn’t believe it either. We tend to listen to H-Man when it comes to risking our hard earned money our money.
However, we love to gamble. And drunk losers at bars frequently inform us of how they’ve just hit 12 straight NFL games, including a 6 game parlay. We aren’t accusing anyone of embellishing their gambling triumphs after a few drinks or anything; we’re just asking these phenoms to share the knowledge.
So, we’ve decided to take on NextRound Nation in an NFL Handicapping contest. If you can prove your skills and consistently out-pick us over the next few weeks, we will give you this Friday afternoon column.
NR’s 3 Rules to Handicapping the NFL:
1) Line Value – In the NFL the majority of money ends up being wagered on Favorites and the Over. Vegas knows the public leans this way on almost every single game. So by default, line value will always lie with Underdogs and the Under.
2) The Rule of 7 – We never lay more than 7 points in a NFL game. If a team is favored by a touchdown or more we will not bet on them. This is a stone cold rule which we absolutely will not break. The reason is that no NFL team is over a touchdown better than their opponent. You might disagree, but teams giving seven or more points were 1-7 last weekend.
3) The Bill Parcells Rule – “You are what you are” – The public decides which teams are good and which teams suck before the season even starts. Yet parity in the NFL consistently leads to more surprising teams and more disappointing teams every season than in any other sports league on any level. Wagering decisions should be made solely based on a team’s performance in the current season. Furthermore, wagering decisions based on the current season should be limited to the team’s previous 4 games.
NextRound’s Picks
***H-MAN IS NOT MAKING THESE PICKS – THESE PICKS ARE MADE BY THE REST OF TEAM COOL & TOUGH***
- Packers (+5.5) v. Chargers - One Unit
- Steelers v. 49ers (Under 38.5) - One Unit
- Giants v. Skins (Under 40.5) - One Unit
Here are some early reader entries:
Pantsman
- Chargers (-4) v. Packers - Three Units
- Jets (-3) v. Dolphins - One Unit
- Bears v. Cowboys (Over 42) - One Unit
AJ
- Chargers (-4) v. Packers - One Unit
- Steelers (-8) v. 49ers - One Unit
Phil Mickelson
9 Game Progressive Parlay: (Texans +5.5, Packers +4, Bills +16.5, Jets -3, 49ers +4.5, Broncos -3, Bengals +3, Falcons +4, Cowboys +3)
Should Lefty hit this parlay he may become our de-facto handicapper, therefore ending the contest.
Entries
Submit your picks in the comments of this article before Sunday’s kickoffs and we’ll monitor your results. Use the H-Man’s 1-3 Unit confidence system.
And just think, before long you could hold the high-paying paying rewarding panty-dropping somewhat interesting gig as NextRound’s NFL handicapper. Good Luck.













Bowl Picks:
Overall Record: 9-11 (3 Unit), 8-6 (2 Unit), 7-1 (1 Unit), -2.7 Units








September 21st, 2007 at 4:42 pm
All one unit
Lions +6
Vikings +2.5
Colts -6
September 21st, 2007 at 4:47 pm
Panthers -3 (2 units)
Texans +6 (1 unit)
September 21st, 2007 at 4:58 pm
Tampa -3.5 (1 unit)
Denver -3 (1 unit)
Dallas +3 (1 unit)
September 21st, 2007 at 5:26 pm
SD/GB Under 43
DET +6
DAL +3
September 21st, 2007 at 5:48 pm
Jets -3 (2 units)
Titans +5 (1 unit)
Patriots -16 (1 unit) i agree with 7+ rule too, almost always.
September 21st, 2007 at 5:57 pm
Colts -6 (one unit)
Vikings +2.5 (one unit)
Niners +9 (piss on your bookies head special of the week)
September 22nd, 2007 at 6:13 pm
Fighting Cutlers (Denver) -3 (two units)
Jets -3 (one unit)
Detroit +6 (one unit)
Oakland -3 (one unit)
September 22nd, 2007 at 7:15 pm
Colts -6
Chargers -5.5
Falcons +4
Cowboys +3
Lions +6
All one unit
September 22nd, 2007 at 10:12 pm
49ers +9.5 (1 units)
Panthers -4 (1 unit)
Bears -3 (1 unit)
Bucs v. Rams under 38.5 (1 unit)
September 23rd, 2007 at 11:10 am
Colts -7
* Andre Johnson being out spells trouble for the 2-0 Texans
Lions +5
* Phlly just ain’t that good, sorry Eagles fan
49ers +10
* Two words Frank Gore (Steelers won’t have the ball enough to win by 10)
September 23rd, 2007 at 11:11 am
Niners +9.5 (1 unit)
Raiders -3 (1 unit)
Texans +6.5 (1 unit)
September 23rd, 2007 at 11:26 am
Arizona +7.5 (1 unit)
SanFran +9.5 (1 Unit)
Det/Phi un 44 (1 unit)
Carolina -4 (2 unit)
If someone tells you they have a “lock” pick ask them what it is and bet your house the other way.
September 23rd, 2007 at 12:07 pm
H-Man,
Will you explain to me the -105, -110, and -115? Is this the way the house slightly shifts the odds in their favor without moving the line?
September 23rd, 2007 at 7:39 pm
After this past weekend, I think no one should ever listen to what I say, infact bet on the opposite teams that I take.
September 23rd, 2007 at 8:48 pm
WHOOO WHEEE, I am leaving to the pros, AKA H-Man
September 24th, 2007 at 11:01 am
i take full responsibility for the jets push. when they were up by 15 in the 4th quarter, i made the statement “i love winning money”. my bad.
September 24th, 2007 at 2:09 pm
I love the Eagles/Lions under from Rick.
This was the second tough NFL week in a row.