The H-Man Cometh: Week 5 Part II
September 28th, 2007 by The H-Man
Air Force (+120 moneyline) v. Navy - 2 Units 1:05PM EST
If you’re able to get this line at +3 or better, then it’s fine to take the spread. If it’s under three (it’s currently +2.5 most places), I would recommend just going ahead and taking Air Force on the moneyline.
Basically, I think Air Force is much better than Navy at this juncture. Navy’s defense is atrocious, they were gashed by Duke last week and have really struggled all season. The matchups favor Air Force here, as they are much better defensively against the run than Navy.
Cal (+6) v. Oregon - 1 Unit 3:30PM EST
This spread is fishier than George O’Leary’s resume. Oregon does have a strong home field advantage, and the home team has historically dominated this series. However, I believe that Cal is better than Oregon both offensively and defensively. The Bears offense has plenty of options, and should have no problems against an extremely suspect Ducks defense. I expect Oregon to have some success offensively, but I’m not sure they’ll be able to keep up with Cal.
Oregon State (-2) v. UCLA - 1 Unit 6:30PM EST
In my opinion, UCLA is extremely overvalued by the betting public, and Oregon State is undervalued. Nothing at all impresses me about this UCLA team. Oregon State is a better team than their record indicates. They’ve suffered from ill-timed turnovers and bad breaks. This is their first conference home game, and I expect them to come out and take care of business.
Colorado State (+10) v. TCU - 1 Unit 7:00PM EST
I was high on TCU coming into this season, but they have been extremely disappointing. They’ve lost two games, and were actually outgained last week by a god awful SMU team. Their offense stinks, and they aren’t as strong defensively as previous editions.
Conversely, Colorado State is still being undervalued by Vegas and the betting public. Their offense has been balanced and productive, and they played statistically even on the road last week against an extremely good Houston team. Their offense should keep them in this game, and I don’t expect TCU’s offense to break out of their funk.
That’s it for this week. Hopefully we can get back on track. Comments and questions welcome as always. Good luck this weekend.
The H-Man is NextRound’s college football/sports investment contributor/guru. Contact him at info@nextround.net with any questions or comments.
Week 13 Picks:
Week 12 Picks:
September 28th, 2007 at 2:12 pm
WV -7 2 units
L’Ville -9 2 units
Clemson -3 1 unit
Michigan -17 1 unit
September 28th, 2007 at 3:12 pm
I’m pretty sure betting on clemson is against the rules in this case.
September 28th, 2007 at 4:38 pm
WV against S. Florida has square bet written all over it….again.
September 29th, 2007 at 8:06 am
I am all for the H-Man making my picks trust me! I would be minus 1000 units by now. But am I crazy or is the O/U in the OU/Colo. game ridiculously low. 55.5???! I am saying everything I have won from the H-Man is going on the over in that game.