Here are three common ignorant statements you’ll probably hear some blowhard make over the next couple of weeks:

1) “The Colts Are Better Off If Tony Dungy Retires”

Tony Dungy has lost in the opening round of the playoffs three out of the last four years. All three of those years the Colts were at home, a heavy favorite, and coming off a bye. Many people use these stats to pad a claim that Dungy is not a good playoff coach and hasn’t maximized the Colts’ potential in the post-season.

In reality though, Tony Dungy is a very good playoff coach. The one hole in his coaching abilities is that he can’t get his team to perform well after a bye week.

In his career, Dungy is 127-65 during the regular season. He is 9-9 in the playoffs. The guy will get your team in the playoffs every year. And in today’s parody-driven league, there’s not a lot more you can ask for. You have to be “in it to win it”, and he has won it once in his last four attempts.

How many coaches out there are capable of duplicating Dungy’s success? Outside of Belichick, what active/living coach would you rather have leading your team?

2) “The Window of Opportunity for the Cowboys Is Closed”

I understand that T.O. and Terry Glenn are getting old, but what a lot of people don’t realize is how young the Cowboys are just about everywhere outside of these aging receivers.

Romo is young, Witten is young, Barber is young. Terrance Newman, Roy Williams, the O-Line: all young guys. The Cowboys could use a little more help on the offensive front, and they need one more wide receiver (Patrick Crayton proved last weekend who couldn’t catch Gonorrhea in Mexico), but they’re hurting significantly less than most teams.

If I was the Cowboys GM (which I probably should be) I would A) Waive Glenn and draft a wide receiver on the first day of the draft, and B) Trade Julius Jones for an extra draft pick so that I could add depth to my offensive line. Do something like that, and I see the Cowboys in the Super Bowl next year.

Remember, the Super Bowl Champion Steelers, the Super Bowl Champion Colts, and this year’s San Diego Chargers’ team have one thing in common: all three teams lost in their first game of the playoffs as the #1 seed the year before they made their playoff run.

History is on the Cowboys’ side to make a deep run next year.

3) “Just Give the Super Bowl to the Patriots Now”

Look, the Patriots are more than likely going to be going home with the trophy, but it’s not like the teams in their way are just going to roll over.

Here’s Booth’s odds for the rest of the field:

Chargers Chance of Winning the Super Bowl: 1 in 7 (14.2%)

The Patriots beat the Chargers 38-14 Week 2 in Foxboro. I throw that game completely out the window because at that time the Chargers had not bought into Norv Turner’s offense and it was the Patriots first game after “Spygate”.

This weekend, I give the Chargers a puncher’s chance for two reasons:

1) The Patriots stomped on the Chargers’ logo and mocked the “Lights Out” dance (which is gay and deserved it) after beating San Diego in San Diego in the playoffs last year. This should provide the Chargers with some extra motivation. And…

2) In sports, when a huge underdog slays Goliath it takes a superhuman effort from a superstar player (see Appalachian State v. Michigan). If Tomlinson goes crazy for 200+ total yards and 3 touchdowns, the Chargers have a chance. If he gets 125 and a TD, the Chargers lose by 2 touchdowns. LT is going to have to go nuts.

Packers Chance of Winning the Super Bowl: 1 in 5 (20.0%)

For the Packers to beat the Patriots, they would simply have to outscore the Pats. New England’s defense is not particularly impressive, if Green Bay can win the turnover battle they could outscore the Patriots something like 42-35.

I don’t think this is particularly likely, but it is within the realm of possibilities. Either way, if these teams meet in the Super Bowl I think the Over/Under will be around 56. And I will be taking the over.

Giants Chance of Winning the Super Bowl: 1 in 9 (11.1%)

The Giants lost to the Patriots 38-35 in Week 16 in a game that apparently sparked New York’s resurgence and made a man out of Eli Manning. Obviously, the Giants have the ability to play with the Patriots.

The reason I don’t give the Giants more of a chance to beat the Patriots if they play them in the Super Bowl is experience. I just can’t see Coughlin out-coaching Belichick or Eli out-playing Brady. Call me crazy, but I just can’t see it.

Previous Editions of “Turf Toe”:

• Fixing Mid-Major Bowl Tie-Ins
• The Big 10 Should Be a Mid-Major
• Playing the Role of Falcons’ Management, Booth

“Wicked Case of Turf Toe” is Booth’s weekly column dedicated to passing judgment on the world of sports.

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