There are two types of gambling: Gambling to Win and Gambling for FUN.

The following column focuses on gambling for FUN. Do not misinterpret any of the below as advice on how to win money. If I knew how to win money my permanent residence would not be a series of my friends’ couches.

While most people are focusing on which team to wager on, I’m focusing on compiling my ten prop bets for the Super Bowl. This can be a long and arduous process due to the sheer quantity of prop bets available. Luckily, I’ve spent a quarter of a lifetime developing an intricate seven step system to wade through the sea of props.

The Goals:

1) To wager on prop bets that will be determined at several different points throughout the Super Bowl, &

2) To wager on prop bets that will spread your routing interests evenly between Giants’ players, Patriots’ players, and random shit that goes on throughout the game.

STEP 1: BET THE COIN TOSS

You MUST bet on the coin toss. It is really the most affective way to establish yourself as the coolest and toughest person at the your Super Bowl party. And not only will it establish that you are ridiculously cool and tough, but it will also send a clear message to all the amateur sports fans around you that you are a degenerate gamble who does not socialize while the game is being played. Nothing makes me want to stab someone with a plastic fork more than being asked a pointless question like what I do for a living when I’m sweating out whether Junior Seau can get over the 5.5 tackles total.

When it comes to the toss I always pick the team I think is going to win the toss instead of heads or tails, because the Super Bowl usually uses some weird commemorative coin with Vince Lombardi’s face plastered on one side, and the refs never clarify which side is heads and which is tails.

Super Bowl XL the coin had the Steelers’ logo on one side and the Seahawks’ logo on the other. Tom Brady (who was ironically the ceremonial tosser of the salad coin that year) just flipped it and the toss went to Seattle since their logo was up. Brady must have been busy devising his plan to impregnate hot actresses and then bang hot models, because the fucker didn’t even name heads or tails.

If I remember correctly Vegas and the online sports books had to NO ACTION all the coin toss bets. Fuck that. My middle name is ACTION. That shit doesn’t fly for me.

So, how do you pick which team to bet on? Simple, decide who’s the biggest mush you know (in my case Toast) and ask him who he thinks will win the coin toss. Then bet the opposite.

My Pick: Giants

STEP 2: FIRST TOUCHDOWN OF THE GAME

After the excitement of the coin toss, you’ll be jonesing for something new to sweat right after kickoff. My go-to is player to score the first touchdown.

Two keys to this prop: 1) The first player to score is never who you think it will be, so select someone with value (i.e. Devin Hester last year); 2) Wager on one player from each team so that you can pull for either team to score from the opening possession.

Both teams spread the ball around so there are a lot of options. After hours of research I’ve determined the first touchdown will most likely be a pass of under 10 yards. I will lay off Moss and Burress because I think both defenses will be keying those guys early so…

My Picks: The Other Steve Smith (20 to 1) and Wes Welker (7 to 1). WELKA!

STEP 3: HOW DO YOU LIKE THE GAME TO GO?

As you are putting together your props for the Super Bowl you need to come up with a general sketch of how you think the game will play out. This sketch will help you to identify prop bets that you find valuable.

I think the Giants will be successful moving the ball both through the air and on the ground. I expect both Jacobs and Bradshaw to have above average games. I expect Eli to play well, but I also expect him to finally throw that first playoff interception. He’ll spread the ball around, but I think Asante Samuel will neutralize Plaxico Burress.

I think the Patriots will move the ball well, primarily through the air. The Giants should be able to score with the Patriots so expect the Pats to keep their foot on the gas. Don’t anticipate a lot of Maroney handoffs.

That’s my thumbnail analysis of the game. You’ll most likely see it play out as far opposite of that as possible.

STEP 4: GIANTS PLAYER PROPS

Assorted player wagers that should be interesting.

Prop: Eli Total TD Passes Over/Under 1.5.

Booth Analysis: Eli is now awesome. He will easily throw over 1.5 TD passes (-155).

Prop: Brandon Jacobs Over/Under 62.5 rushing yards.

Booth Analysis: Give me the Over (-115). Jacobs is a monster. I could run for 63 yards against the Pats’ geriatric linebacking core.

Prop: Steve Smith Over/Under 30.5 receiving yards.

Booth Analysis: I like the Over (-115) again (I’m optimistic like that). Eli will find Smith quite a bit in this game since Belichick will not let Plax beat them like he almost did in Week 17.

STEP 5: PATRIOTS PLAYER PROPS

More assorted player wagers that should be interesting.

Prop: Brady Over/Under 300.5 passing yards.

Booth Analysis: The Over (-120) one more time. Steve Stetson will carry the Patriots’ offense now that they’re in a pass-friendly climate. And don’t give me this shit about the dude’s ankle. That’s two weeks of media. Have you seen the Patriots’ line? TB could unfold a lawn chair and have a beer before he’s forced to make a decision on most plays…

Prop: Maroney Over/Under 85.5 rushing yards

Booth Analysis: Finally taking the Under (-115). No way Maroney will be running the ball anywhere near as much in this game as he has the two previous playoff games.

Prop: Moss Over/Under 90.5 receiving yards.

Booth Analysis: Over (-115). West Virginia’s finest will bust out after being a decoy most of the playoffs.

Prop: Welker Over/Under 7.5 receptions.

Booth Analysis: Go Over (+125). I expect the Great White Hope to have a game as big as his dong against the Giants banged up secondary.

STEP 6: GAME PROPS

Prop: Giants Over/Under 21 total points.

Booth Analysis: Over (-125), the Giants cruise past this number.

Prop: Over/Under 6.5 total touchdowns.

Booth Analysis: Over (+120). I’m looking at least 4 from the Pats and 3 from the Giants. Eli leads a potent attack!

STEP 7: THE WICKED PARLAY

Where you really lay your balls out there.

Parlay: Over 4 total sacks + Shortest TD Over 1.5 yards + Both teams will not make a field goal over 33 yards.

Booth Analysis: I will take a shot at a weird parlay that I can sweat the whole game and thoroughly confuse anyone who asks me what I’m rooting for.

Alright guys, that’s my guidance. If you have never bet props for the Super Bowl before I highly recommend you pony up 100 bucks (do it you cheap bastard) and throw down on ten or so. I promise it will be worth it in entertainment value alone.

I would cap your total at ten though. One year I decided I was Captain Bad Ass and laid down on twenty-eight props. It was simply too much to track. No one wants to be glued to a spreadsheet when watching the last game of the season.

Now go out and impress that dip-making loser at your party with your gambling prowess…

(By the way, Booth will take the Giants and the Over in the game. I think the Patriots win a close Super Bowl. Isn’t that how they like to win Super Bowls?)

Previous Editions of “Turf Toe”:

• NFL Water Cooler Prep
• Fixing Mid-Major Bowl Tie-Ins
• The Big 10 Should Be a Mid-Major
• Playing the Role of Falcons’ Management, Booth

“Wicked Case of Turf Toe” is Booth’s weekly column dedicated to passing judgment on the world of sports.

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