Breaking down the top two contenders for the Belmont Stakes…

Names

Casino Drive. Reminds me of all the times I’ve left the casino with nothing at all. No money, no dignity, no comps, no STDs.

Big Brown. Reminds everyone of _______ (fill in your own graphic reference for a massive bowel movement).

Advantage: Casino Drive. Inexplicably, I actually enjoy that feeling when I leave the casino an even broker down version of myself. Do you think that’s a problem?

Distance

The Belmont is 1.5 miles or 12 furlongs. That’s an extremely long race. If you listen to pre-race hype (which you probably don’t, but I do), you will hear horse racing experts questioning whether a horse “can make the distance.” Now at least you know that has nothing to do with premature ejaculation.

Advantage: Casino Drive. In general, horse trainers would prefer more rest in between races for their horses than the Triple Crown offers. Big Brown is fighting an uphill battle in because his best and only competition did not run in the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness.

Starting Position

Depending on who you talk to you will get differing opinions on what role starting position really plays in horse racing. I tend to agree with the consensus opinion that the 1st post, closest to the rail, is the worst position in horse racing. Big Brown drew the 1 post while Casino Drive drew the 5 post.

If a horse has enough early speed it can overcome an inside starting position. Also, the longer the race the less starting position plays into the outcome.

Advantage: Casino Drive (slightly). Big Brown has plenty of early speed to negate the terrible starting spot, and the 12 furlongs will give him ample length to get in position to dominate the backstretch.

Jockey

I know nothing about horse jockeys other than the fact they are all 5 feet tall, a buck twenty, and marry chicks way out of their league.

Advantage: If you have an opinion on who has the better jockey you are not reading this article because you are busy hanging out at the track right now, eating Spam out of the can, gambling away your last credit card cash advance.

Origin

Casino Drive: Japan (home of Fukudome and weird porn).

Big Brown: USA (home of Springsteen and normal porn).

Advantage: Big Brown. The only things the Japanese are good at are Kung Fu and making DVD players.

Odds

Casino Drive: 9/2 (for every 2 dollars you wager you win 9).

Big Brown: 1/3 (for every 3 dollars you wager you win 1).

Advantage: Big Brown. Clearly the guys who get paid to know which horse is going to win feel that Big Brown has the Triple Crown in the bag.

Conclusion

The only reason to watch a horse race is to gamble on it. That’s not opinion, that’s fact. I plan to exacta box Casino Drive and Big Brown, which means betting Casino Drive and Big Brown to finish first and second in either order. It also means that I sound kind of awesome when I tell people I’m “exacta boxing” the race. The move won’t make you rich, but it should make for a decent payday if it hits.

Where you can make some real money in this race is betting three to four trifectas. I plan to put Big Brown and Casino Drive in the first and second position (in that order) and then switching out a couple of the long shots in the third position. If you can get a 30 to 1 shot or higher to fill out your trifecta you’ll be drinking imports for at least a month.

Winner: Big Brown. I think the cracked hoof, the bad starting position, the irritating as hell trainer, and the mysterious foreign contender all lead up to a storybook ending for Big Poop Brown.

Now you know enough to spend your Saturday getting bombed and making bad decisions with your money. Enjoy.

Previous Editions of Turf Toe:

• Sports to Watch This Summer When You’re Not Watching the NHL Finals
• A Fond Farewell to Those We Will Never Hear from Again
• Booth Previews the Western Conference
• Booth Previews the Eastern Conference
• Has the Sports World Underestimated Memphis?

“Wicked Case of Turf Toe” is Booth’s regular column dedicated to passing judgment on the world of sports. Click here for the archives.

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