To prime everyone for my wallet thickening college football picks column that kicks off next week, I put together the following list of top five teams I feel are overvalued by Las Vegas odds makers entering the college football season.

Let me make this clear, me putting your team on this list doesn’t mean I think they suck or will play in the Humanitarian Bowl, it simply means I think they’ll be overvalued against the spread this season. Check your emotions a the door.

Georgia - Preseason Rank #1

The Bulldogs have already lost starting left tackle Trinton Sturdivant for the season. This loss is almost as crushing as the dump I took on a charter bus a few years back. Everyone likes to talk about how tough the end of Georgia’s schedule will be for them to navigate through, but I think Sturdivant’s absence will hurt their value as a wagering option in Weeks 2, 3, and 4. This portion of the Bulldog schedule is a lot trickier then people realize.

Schedule Issues:

Week 2 v. Central Michigan. Central Michigan is the two time defending MAC Champ and feature the French sensation Dan LeFevour at quarterback. Georgia will be a huge favorite but I’m not sure they’ll get in the end zone enough to cover the spread since Central Michigan will put up a couple scores of their own.

Week 3 v. South Carolina. Georgia always seems to unnecessarily struggle with the Gamecocks (there’s a doesn’t-know-how-to-handle-a-cock joke in there somewhere), and I’m always weary of betting against a Steve Spurrier led home underdog.

Week 4 at Arizona St. You’re looking at a long flight, a talented team, national television, and Dennis Erickson three scotches deep. This is a scary spot for the Dawgs.

Ohio State - Preseason Rank #3

I think I’ve made it abundantly clear that I thought Ohio State was wildly overrated last year. They had no business playing LSU in the National Championship Game. This year they return 18 starters from the most overrated team in the nation last year. Congrats, Buckeye fans.

Schedule Issues:

Week 3 at USC. Ohio State is going to have to fly to L.A. and beat a severely more talented USC team. USC is currently only a 3.5 point favorite.

Week 6 at Wisconsin. Wisconsin still has P.J. Hill who should be able to gain yards against a good Buckeye defense, but the key to his game will be senior TE Travis Beckum. Beckum is a mismatch against any defender. Last season Beckum caught 9 balls for 140 yards and 1 TD. Ohio State will be favored in this game, but I like Wisconsin in this spot as a home dog.

Week 8 at Michigan State. The Spartans are a little better than people realize. They return senior QB Brian Hoyer who threw 20 touchdowns last year (against 11 interceptions). I have a rager for senior quarterbacks who have at least one season under their belt as a starter. Ohio State should be a heavy favorite in this game, but Michigan State has the potential to keep it close.

LSU - Preseason Rank #7

I’m not sure why more people don’t seem worried about the fact that LSU is going to start a Harvard JV transfer at quarterback. Looking down the list of teams ranked in the preseason top 25 LSU has by far the biggest question mark under center. I don’t like to wager on a team that doesn’t have solid QB play.

Schedule Issues:

Week 4 at Auburn. The Harvard kid might shit his pants at the sight of Auburn’s defense.

Week 5 v. Mississippi State. Mississippi State is not going to be a pushover this season. This game falls after LSU’s trip to Auburn and before the next two contests. Can you say trap game?

Week 6 at Florida. The Gators are better than LSU. The QB disparity here is just insurmountable (cue me applying chapstick for Tebow visit).

Week 7 at South Carolina. LSU is more talented than South Carolina, but this is a really tough game to close out this stretch and I promise Spurrier didn’t chuckle off the fake field goal Les Miles pulled on him last year.

Illinois - Preseason Rank #20

Alright, one more chance to beat up on the Big Ten. Illinois lost Rashard Mendenhall to the first round of the NFL draft, which means that Juice Williams will have to really step up as a passer. Despite early promising reports, I just don’t see it happening. But the biggest problem facing the Illini is that they’re still coached by Ron Zook. I don’t bet on Zook.

Schedule Issues:

Week 1 at Missouri. Chase Daniels is a LOT better than Juice Williams.

Week 4 at Penn State. I’m not high on the Nittany Lions but I think this will be a tough road test for Illinois.

Week 5 at Michigan. In the battle of the overrated teams, I always go home team.

Week 8 at Wisconsin. Another tough road game for Illinois…

Michigan - Preseason Rank #24 (In Coach’s Poll)

Seriously, who the fuck voted for Michigan? I know I have a personal bias against the Big Ten, but even the most impartial college observer has to admit Michigan doesn’t have the right players for Rich Rod’s system, right?

Schedule Issues:

Week 1 v. Utah. Can you say Utah moneyline?

Week 3 at Notre Dame. The Irish are nothing special this year but with John Tenuta running the defense Notre Dame will be competitive in more spots than people think.

Week 4 v. Wisconsin. Wisconsin is significantly better then Michigan.

By the time Michigan get through the first four weeks of the season Rodriguez might be wishing he stayed in West Virginia, except for all the furniture burning of course.

College football is just one week away. Time to get excited…

Previous Editions of Turf Toe:

• Booth Is Your New College Football Handicapper
• NFL Storylines I Care MUCH More About Than Favre
• CFB’s Best Inter-Conference Games of 2008 (Not Involving Ohio State)
• 3 Steps for Enjoying the NBA Draft
• A Fond Farewell to Those We Will Never Hear from Again

Wicked Case of Turf Toe is Booth’s regular column dedicated to passing judgment on the world of sports. Click here for the full archives.

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