Booth Picks College Football Winners: Week 5
September 26th, 2008 by Booth
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So who else liked Oregon State and the under last night?
Last weekend was our first weekend in the red — albiet just barely (-0.2 units) — so it’s time to come strong. And nothing says strong like my first 2 unit pick of the season…
Connecticut at Louisville (-3.5) - 2 UNITS (ESPN2, 8PM Friday)
Coaching: Louisville -3
Louisville gets the three point edge because of new Defensive Coordinator Ron English. He has changed the scheme, attitude, and productivity of the Cardinals defense.
Home Field Advantage: Louisville -3
Louisville gets the standard three point edge for home field advantage. This is a fairly long trip for UConn and Louisville fans create a great college football atmosphere, despite their stadium being named after deliver pizza.
Quarterback: Louisville -7
UConn QBTyler Lorenzen is nothing more than a caretaker. He doesn’t have a strong arm and he doesn’t have the ability to stretch the field.
Louisville’s QB was absolutely pathetic against Kentucky in the season opener. I mean horrible. However, his performance did not reflect his talent level. In the two games since the season opener he has completed 66% of his passes with 4 TDs and 0 Ints.
Talent: Louisville -3
UConn boasts the leading rusher in the nation, Donald Brown. The problem is the Huskies have no compliment for Brown. They’ve even recently resorted to giving DBs a shot at receiver in an attempt to create some much needed offensive fire power. UConn’s defense looked solid on paper prior to the Baylor game, but in that contest they were exposed. If Baylor’s QB could have hit more wide open recievers UConn would have lost that game by double digits.
Louisville’s defense has looked extremely good this season. They’re only giving up 42 yards a game on the ground and 200 yards a game through the air. This is where the hidden value in this line rests.
Schedule: Louisville -0.5
This is the first of three huge road games for UConn (Louisville, North Carolina, Rutgers) while Louisville is playing their 4th straight home game.
Momentum: Louisville -1
After getting a hard fought win against Baylor last Friday night this looks to be a classic letdown spot for UConn. Louisville has bounced back nicely from their season opening disappointment against Kentucky and the team has been playing extremely well in their last two games.
ADVANTAGE: Louisville -17.5. Take Louisville -3.5.
Western Michigan (-4) at Temple - 1 UNIT
Coaching: EVEN
I hate to say that coaching will not affect a game, but there is nothing which indicates a coaching advantage for either squad.
Home Field Advantage: Temple -3
Temple gets the standard three because Western Michigan has to travel and a Temple home game is so boring that it can cause a team to start out playing flat.
Quarterback Play: Western Michigan -9
Temple lost three year starting senior QB Adam DeMichelle for the season against Penn State on Saturday. The Owls do not have depth at any position, especially quarterback. Their backup QB came in and threw three picks against Penn State.
Western Michigan QB Tim Hiller has been off to a massive start going 101 of 141 (71.6%) for 1,102 yards with 14 TDs against only 2 INTs, including a solid 342 yard performance in the season opener against Nebraska.
Talent: Western Michigan -7
DeMichelle was Temple’s only offense. The Owls average only 83 rushing yards a game and only 185 yards passing with DeMichelle. Temple’s defense gives up 414 yards a game almost evenly distributed between rushing and passing.
Western Michigan averages 445 yards a game of offense but they give up 407 yards a game on defense. The problem for Temple is that Western Michigan’s defense gives up the majority of yards through the air and without DeMichelle they will not be able to take advantage.
Schedule: EVEN
Nothing of note on either side.
Momentum: Western Michigan -3.5
In consecutive weeks Temple has lost in overtime, to a last play of the game hail mary, and in a blow out game that put their senior leader quarterback out for the year. Who feels like playing this week?
ADVANTAGE Western Michigan -16.5. Take Western Michigan -4.
Good luck this weekend.
Bowl Picks:
Overall Record: 9-11 (3 Unit), 8-6 (2 Unit), 7-1 (1 Unit), -2.7 Units
September 26th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
would love to see your picks and how they stack up on cheehee.com
September 27th, 2008 at 1:10 am
ouch
September 27th, 2008 at 8:44 am
Booth,
You seem to be taking the same side as the public on many of your recent losses. Do you consider a contrarian approach and look at where the money is? Last week, all the money was on East Carolina (Loss) and this week all the money was on Lousville (Loss). It just seems it is not necessarily a given that the masses lose, but it seems to be a pretty strong flashing red light to maybe lay off.
FYI….All the money is on W. Michigan today.
Would love to hear a response.
September 30th, 2008 at 6:27 pm
I don’t particularly worry about where the money is going on the games that I post. I evaluate the games based on the 6 factors in the article.
However, I strongly agree that if 80% of the money is going on one side that you should take the other. I use that indicator when picking games that I don’t post. As you probably already know these games are not the only games that I bet over the weekend.
I stand by the analysis of the Louisville game.