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I’m officially off the Riley Skinner Dong Express after last weekend. I might be off betting the ACC altogether. That conference is schizophrenic. Other than the Wake debacle things went pretty smoothly. Let’s see if we can put together an undefeated week this week.

Cincinnati (-2.5) at UConn (Noon) - 1 UNIT

Coaching: Cincinnati -3.5

In the past I’ve always thought of UConn Coach Randy Edsall as average, but I’ve changed my feelings on him this season. I think he gets a lot more out of his talent than I previously realized.

However, Cincinnati Coach Brian Kelly is one of the best coaches in the country. He put Central Michigan on the college football map before leading Cincinnati to a 10 win season last year.

Home Field Advantage: UConn -2

Cincinnati has to travel, but UConn doesn’t get the full 3 here. Earlier this season the Bearcats went on the road to Norman, Oklahoma and went blow for blow with the Sooners. They are definitely battle tested.

Quarterback: Cincinnati -7.5

Do I love the Cincinnati QB situation? Not really. But Tony Pike is returning which should give their passing game a shot in the arm.

Do I love the UConn QB situation? No. It’s a disaster. With Tyler Lorenzen out, Zach Frazer has to carry the passing game. He simply is not very good and teams are going to force him to beat them.

Talent: Cincinnati -3

This is extremely close. Cincinnati’s run defense holds opponents to 95 yards per game.  UConn’s RB Donald Brown has been awesome so far this year, but will face his toughest test this weekend. With little to no passing game to speak of, Brown will have to earn every inch.

The difference in this game in terms of talent does not fall with offense or defense but special teams. Cincinnati has the clear edge.

Schedule: UConn -1.5

UConn gets to come home after 3 straight road games and the noon kickoff tends to favor the home team.

Momentum: Cincinnati -2

UConn has lost 2 straight games, both the games the Frazer kid has started after the Lorenzen injury. Cincinnati has won 4 straight games since losing to Oklahoma in Week 2.

ADVANTAGE: Cincinnati -12.5. Take Cincy -2.5.

Central Michigan (-4.5) at Toledo (Noon) - 1 UNIT

Coaching: EVEN

I really like “Toledo Tom” Amstutz. He’s got a killer nickname and he coaches his kids up. He has done a nice job with the Toledo program.

CMU Coach Butch Jones picked up where Brian Kelly left off leading CMU to the MAC championship last year. We’ll call this one even.

Home Field Advantage: Toledo -3

Standard 3 point home field advantage for Toledo in this spot.

Quarterback: Central Michigan -11.5

Toledo QB Aaron Opelt leads the 87^th ranked passing offense in the country by averaging less than 200 yards a game.  He has not thrown a touchdown pass in Toledo’s last 4 games.

Central Michigan QB Dan Lefevour is the best player in the MAC. He is coming off a sprained ankle but he should be ready to go. You’ll be comforted to know that I’m pretty sure he isn’t really French.

Talent: Central Michigan -7

Toledo’s offense has fallen apart the last month, scoring 16, 0, 13, and 7 points in their last 4 games. The defense hasn’t really picked up the slack allowing 32.4 ppg.

Central Michigan is not great on defense either, allowing 28 ppg. Central Michigan’s offense should move at will against Toledo. They have two wide receivers (Brown, Anderson) who both could potentially reach the 1,000 yard mark this season.

Schedule: Toledo -2

Toledo gets to come home after two straight road games, while CMU starts a three game road trip. The noon kickoff favors the home team.

Momentum: Central Michigan -2

Central Michigan has won 3 straight games. Toledo is 2-5. They would be on a six game losing streak if it wasn’t for their fluke win against Michigan.

ADVANTAGE: Central Michigan -15.5. Take the Chippewas -4.5.

New Mexico State (-13) at Idaho AND Over 66.5 (5PM) - 1 UNIT EACH

1)      New Mexico State averages 28.7 ppg.

2)      New Mexico State throws the ball for 346 yards a game.

3)      New Mexico State gives up 32 ppg.

4)      Idaho is really, really bad on defense.

5)      Idaho gives up 47 ppg. Their defense is the worst in the country.

I believe that New Mexico State will easily get to 45 in this game. Idaho has given up 51, 42, 45, 49, 45, and 46 in their last six games. By taking New Mexico State and the Over separately, not parlayed, you’re almost guaranteed to hit one and there is an extremely good chance you’ll hit both if New Mexico State can get to 45.

Take Both New Mexico State -12 and the Over.

As always, good luck to everyone this weekend.

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