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After a disastrously rough week a lot of people get shell shocked and start second guessing themselves. Fuck that. As the great JK taught me: “When the going gets tough, the tough reload.”

Going forward I will make two promises:

1) I am out of the UConn business. In games involving UConn I am 1-2 for -2.3 units.

2) I am out of the New Mexico State business. In games involving the Aggies I am 0-3 for -3.3 units.

Now let’s get back on track…

Utah (-7.5) at New Mexico - 1 UNIT (9:30PM EST)

Coaching:  Utah -5

Utah Coach Kyle Whittingham can flat out coach. He is one of the few guys who gets solid play in all three phases.

New Mexico Coach Rocky Long is the epitome of an average coach. I actually think that his career record in 11 seasons is 65-65 (if not it is very close to .500). He’s just not in the same class as Whittingham.

Home Field Advantage: New Mexico -2

New Mexico gets the edge because Utah has to travel and New Mexico has a solid fan base who create a decent atmosphere.

Quarterback Play: Utah -9

Utah QB Brian Johnson completes 66% of his passes and has passed for 1,625 yards with 13 TDs against only 7 INTs. Johnson has been extremely solid but he is not going to go out and throw for 365 yards and 5 TDs.

New Mexico QB Brad Gruner is 49 of 95 for 540 yards with 3 TDs and 5 INTs on the season. He might not be great, but the other New Mexico QB to see significant time this season is 50 of 75 yards with 0 TDs and 3 INTs. They just don’t have much to work with this year.

Talent: Utah -8.5

Utah has the best kicking game in the country. That gives Utah a huge advantage over their opponents.

New Mexico lacks dynamic playmakers on offense. There only offense is their star RB Rodney Ferguson who has rushed for 865 yards this season. He has rushed for over 1,100 yards each of the last 2 seasons.

Luckily Utah knows that Ferguson is the only option for New Mexico. Utah’s defense only gives up 86 ypg on the ground at an average of 2.7 ypc.

Schedule: New Mexico -4

Classic look ahead game for Utah with TCU lurking on the horizon next week, which honestly scares me to death, but I am going to grit me teeth and bear it.

Momentum: Utah -1

New Mexico is 4-5.  Utah is undefeated.

ADVANTAGE: UTAH - 17.5.  Take Utah -7.5.

Fresno State (-5) vs. Louisiana Tech - 1 UNIT (2:30PM EST)

Coaching: Fresno St. -3

Pat Hill can coach. It could easily be argued that Fresno St. has been a disappointment this year but the two games they lost were both by only 3 points.

Louisiana Tech head coach Derek Dooley is an unproven commodity at this point, which is why I have not given Fresno St. more of an advantage.

Home Field Advantage: Fresno St. -1

Huh? The Bulldogs pride themselves on going on the road and winning in the other team’s house. Record on the road this year 4-0, Record at home 1-2.

Quarterback: Fresno St. -6

Fresno St. QB Tom Brandstater is not a dynamic playmaker. He is more of a solid caretaker who can make plays when called upon. He completes 62.5% of his passes and has 11 TDs vs. 5 INTs.

La Tech QB Taylor Bennett (yes, the same donkey who was at Georgia Tech the last 3 years) has gotten worse with age. He completes a terrible 38.6% of his passes and has thrown 2 TDs vs. 5 INTs. Don’t be fooled into thinking that moving from ACC playmakers to WAC playmakers account for his completion % woes, last year at Georgia Tech he completed 49.5% of his passes.

Talent: Fresno St. -4.5

Fresno St.’s defense has been disappointing this year giving up 28.1 ppg. However, LA Tech’s offense is the worst. They average only 19 ppg. They literally have no playmakers.

Fresno St.’s offense has been good since the Wisconsin game scoring at least 29 points in every game. LA Tech’s defense is slightly worse than average giving up 22.1 ppg.

In my estimation, Fresno St.’s offense has a bigger advantage over LA Tech’s defense than vice versa.

Schedule: EVEN

Nothing of note.

Momentum: Fresno St. -1

LA Tech is coming off a 14-7 loss to Army, that can’t be good for morale. Fresno St. is still 3-1 in conference and still have first place Boise St. left on the schedule. Fresno St. still controls their own destiny in terms of winning their conference which I believe motivates teams during the November stretch run.

ADVANTAGE: Fresno State - 15.5.  Take Fresno State -5.

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