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Going to Las Vegas is both awesome and terrifying.  Since we are in Vegas this weekend, I know that I will be playing a lot more games than usual.  I plan to make a move at almost any game in which I feel that I have an edge.  So instead of breaking down a couple games completely, I am going to tell you which games I am going to play and where I think the hidden value in the line lies.

Nevada (-1) at Fresno St.

Talent:

Fresno St.’s defense is horrible. They have given up  54, 31, 32, 32, 28 & 38 in the last 6 weeks to Toledo, UCLA, Hawaii, Idaho, Utah St. & LA Tech. Those are some of the absolute worst offenses in the country.

Nevada averages 528.1 yards per game, the 5^th most prolific in the country.

Nevada should carve these guys up.

Purdue at Michigan St. (-9.5)

Schedule:

Purdue has played exactly 3 road games: Loss to Notre Dame 38-21, Loss to Ohio St. 16-3, Loss to Northwestern 48-26. They suck on the road.

Momentum:

The wheels have come off for Purdue and especially QB Curtis Painter. I am a little nervous that Michigan St. RB Javon Ringer is wearing down, but Purdue’s defense is terrible giving up 27.6 ppg.

Oklahoma St. (+3.5) at Texas Tech (Over 70)

Take these two separately.

Talent:

Oklahoma St. will get to 35 in this game between Kendall Hunter’s 1220 rushing yards & Dez Bryant’s 1054 receiving yards.

As long as Oklahoma St. holds up there end of the bargain in this one the worst I should do is a split.

Florida (-24) at Vanderbilt

Talent:

Florida’s defense is the key to this cover. Florida’s defense gives up 11.6 ppg. I don’t expect Vanderbilt to score more than 10 points in this game. Florida’s offense scores 43 ppg. I expect Florida to cruise into the 40s in this one.

Oklahoma (-27.5) at Texas A&M (Over 69)

Take both these game separately.

Talent:

Texas A&M gives up 32.6 ppg.  Oklahoma scores 50 ppg.  Oklahoma should easily get to 7 TDs, which means that Oklahoma can give up 3 TDs and still cover.  I expect Oklahoma to get more like 9 TDs as Stoops tries to rack up the style points.

If Oklahoma holds up their end the worst I should do is split.

Army at Rice (-10)

Talent:

Rice should simply outscore Army. Rice scores 41.1 ppg (9^th best in the country). Army scores 15.9 ppg (118^th best in the country).

Kansas St. (+27) at Missouri (Over 68)

Talent:

Kansas St. averages 36.6 ppg.  They give up 33.7 ppg.  If Kansas St. can get to 21 the worst I can do is a split.

Kansas (+1) at Nebraska

Talent:

Kansas is flat out better than Nebraska.  They have lost 3 games this year to South Florida, Oklahoma & Texas Tech.  Nebraska has lost to the good teams they have played and beat the bad teams.  I rate Kansas as one of the good teams Nebraska plays this year.

Penn St. at Iowa (+7.5)

Two angles that I am running here, (1) the teams that start bitch and moaning about the BCS way too early tend to lose focus and lose games in unexpected spots and (2) in games that are expected to be low scoring like this one, the points become so much more valuable, especially with the new clock rules.

Alabama (-3) at LSU

Coaching:

Saban is a significantly better coach than Les Miles.

Talent:

LSU’s defense is not good. LSU’s offense is not good. Three points is not enough. Alabama should be favored by 7.

Conclusion

13 games, all 1 unit, I will also probably throw all these games together in a ridiculous parlay and pray that a miracle happens. Good luck this weekend.

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