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After a solid 2-1 performance last week hopefully we can keep the momentum going this week.

I have been on the road this week for work so the write-ups are a little shorter than usual but the research that went into the picks did not suffer. Now let’s get ready to play 5 games. All 1 unit.

Tennessee at Vanderbilt (-3) - 12:30PM EST

Under which of these categories do you think Tennessee has an advantage?

1) Coaching - Bobby Johnson v. Phil Fulmer

2) Home Field Advantage - The game is in Nashville

3) Quarterback - Do the Vols even have a quarterback?

4) Talent - Tennessee is probably more talented on paper but Vanderbilt has definitely closed the gap and gotten more production out of their talent this season.

5) Momentum - The wheels have come off for Tennessee. They have completely quit.

Michigan State (+14.5) at Penn State - 3:30PM EST

Cold weather games in Big Ten country this time of year don’t often turn into shootouts. I expect this game to turn into a classic Big Ten grind session. Javon Ringer will produce another solid performance to build on his 1,548 yards & 20 TDs so far this season. Penn St. will counter with Evan Royster’s 1,123 yards & 12 TDs. The amount of running that will take place in this game will eat the clock and inflate the value of the 14.5 points.

Penn State’s offense has slowed down a lot in the last month since their schedule stiffened. I still expect them to put some points on the board but if the Spartans can score 17 in this game (they average 26.9 ppg) they should cover.

Air Force (+20) at TCU - 3:30PM EST

I feel like I am stepping in front of a freight train with this pick considering that TCU has only lost to Oklahoma and Utah so far this season. TCU is undeniably the better team; they have not allowed more than 14 points in a game this season except in their loss to Oklahoma when they gave up 35.

The problem with TCU in this game is that 20 points are just too many. Air Force has not lost a game by more than 14 points all year. Air Force was on a 5 game winning streak before losing to BYU last week. Air Force scores 28.2 ppg while gaining 279 yards per game on the ground. If Air Force can get to 17 points they should cover.

Boise State at Nevada (+6) - 4PM EST

Boise St. has been great this year against subpar competition. They beat Oregon 37-32 on the road earlier this year in a back and forth matchup. I can’t make the argument that Boise State is overrated but I don’t feel that their defense is as good as they look on paper.

Nevada is the #1 rushing team in the country at 325 yards a game. They have two 1,000 yard plus rushers (RB Vai Taua 1,284 yards & 12 TDs, QB Colin Kaepernick 1,017 yards & 14 TDs). That is a lot of firepower to stop. I don’t feel that Boise St. is going to be able to slow down the Wolfpack playing at home in this game.

BYU (+7) at Utah - 6PM EST

These two teams are extremely evenly matched. One team averages 36.4 ppg, the other averages 36.5 ppg. One team averages 456 ypg, the other team averages 416 ypg. One team gives up 16.6 ppg, the other team gives up 18.7 ppg. One team has 1 loss, the other team has zero.

The difference in this game in my opinion comes down to quarterback play. If BYU hadn’t laid an egg against TCU and both these teams were undefeated going into this game BYU QB Max Hall would be getting mentioned in the Heisman race with his 3,424 yards and 34 TDs. While Utah QB Brian Johnson has been good this year I have downgraded him in my opinion.

In my eyes he loses his dynamic playmaking ability because he is strictly an average passer. I used to grade him out higher but he is no longer the threat with his legs the way he was in 2005 prior to his 2006 season ending reconstructive knee surgery.

That’s it. Good luck out there this weekend.

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