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After a solid 2-1 performance last week hopefully we can keep the momentum going this week.

I have been on the road this week for work so the write-ups are a little shorter than usual but the research that went into the picks did not suffer. Now let’s get ready to play 5 games. All 1 unit.

Tennessee at Vanderbilt (-3) - 12:30PM EST

Under which of these categories do you think Tennessee has an advantage?

1) Coaching - Bobby Johnson v. Phil Fulmer

2) Home Field Advantage - The game is in Nashville

3) Quarterback - Do the Vols even have a quarterback?

4) Talent - Tennessee is probably more talented on paper but Vanderbilt has definitely closed the gap and gotten more production out of their talent this season.

5) Momentum - The wheels have come off for Tennessee. They have completely quit.

Michigan State (+14.5) at Penn State - 3:30PM EST

Cold weather games in Big Ten country this time of year don’t often turn into shootouts. I expect this game to turn into a classic Big Ten grind session. Javon Ringer will produce another solid performance to build on his 1,548 yards & 20 TDs so far this season. Penn St. will counter with Evan Royster’s 1,123 yards & 12 TDs. The amount of running that will take place in this game will eat the clock and inflate the value of the 14.5 points.

Penn State’s offense has slowed down a lot in the last month since their schedule stiffened. I still expect them to put some points on the board but if the Spartans can score 17 in this game (they average 26.9 ppg) they should cover.

Air Force (+20) at TCU - 3:30PM EST

I feel like I am stepping in front of a freight train with this pick considering that TCU has only lost to Oklahoma and Utah so far this season. TCU is undeniably the better team; they have not allowed more than 14 points in a game this season except in their loss to Oklahoma when they gave up 35.

The problem with TCU in this game is that 20 points are just too many. Air Force has not lost a game by more than 14 points all year. Air Force was on a 5 game winning streak before losing to BYU last week. Air Force scores 28.2 ppg while gaining 279 yards per game on the ground. If Air Force can get to 17 points they should cover.

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After a solid 9-4 performance last week I am back in the positive for the year. Since it worked out so well last week I figured I would fire away again this week. My problem was that I just could not find that many games that I like. I spent a lot of time looking at Big Ten games and Big 12 games and I thought those lines were right where they should be, so I’m just giving you three this week.

Connecticut (-10) v. Syracuse

Talent: Syracuse is horrible on defense. They give up 33.3 ppg. They lose games by an average of 14 ppg. I just can’t see them beating a Connecticut team that with the nation’s leading rusher Donald Brown (1406 yards) should pound Syracuse Defense into submission.

Texas A&M v. Baylor (-8)

Coaching: The coaching advantage for Baylor (Art Briles) is absolutely huge over Texas A&M (Mike Sherman). I would rate Briles more than a TD better than Sherman.

Home Field Advantage/Schedule: Baylor has last 4 games look like this (L @ Okla. St. 34-6), (L @ Nebr. 32-20), (L v. Mizz 31-28), (L @ Tex. 45-21). Notice the difference in results at home v. Missouri. I expect Baylor to follow the trend of a young up and coming teams that play significantly better at home.

Talent: Texas A&M defense gives up 36 ppg. They should really struggle against the Baylor unique scheme.

South Carolina (+22.5) v. Florida

Coaching: Spurrier still has a few tricks left up his sleeve.

Talent: This South Carolina defense is legitimate. I can’t see them getting blown out. They only give up 15.6 ppg. South Carolina’s offense faces a tough challenge, but if they can get to 13, South Carolina should cover because I don’t see Florida getting 5 TDs in this one.

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Going to Las Vegas is both awesome and terrifying.  Since we are in Vegas this weekend, I know that I will be playing a lot more games than usual.  I plan to make a move at almost any game in which I feel that I have an edge.  So instead of breaking down a couple games completely, I am going to tell you which games I am going to play and where I think the hidden value in the line lies.

Nevada (-1) at Fresno St.

Talent:

Fresno St.’s defense is horrible. They have given up  54, 31, 32, 32, 28 & 38 in the last 6 weeks to Toledo, UCLA, Hawaii, Idaho, Utah St. & LA Tech. Those are some of the absolute worst offenses in the country.

Nevada averages 528.1 yards per game, the 5^th most prolific in the country.

Nevada should carve these guys up.

Purdue at Michigan St. (-9.5)

Schedule:

Purdue has played exactly 3 road games: Loss to Notre Dame 38-21, Loss to Ohio St. 16-3, Loss to Northwestern 48-26. They suck on the road.

Momentum:

The wheels have come off for Purdue and especially QB Curtis Painter. I am a little nervous that Michigan St. RB Javon Ringer is wearing down, but Purdue’s defense is terrible giving up 27.6 ppg.

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After a disastrously rough week a lot of people get shell shocked and start second guessing themselves. Fuck that. As the great JK taught me: “When the going gets tough, the tough reload.”

Going forward I will make two promises:

1) I am out of the UConn business. In games involving UConn I am 1-2 for -2.3 units.

2) I am out of the New Mexico State business. In games involving the Aggies I am 0-3 for -3.3 units.

Now let’s get back on track…

Utah (-7.5) at New Mexico - 1 UNIT (9:30PM EST)

Coaching:  Utah -5

Utah Coach Kyle Whittingham can flat out coach. He is one of the few guys who gets solid play in all three phases.

New Mexico Coach Rocky Long is the epitome of an average coach. I actually think that his career record in 11 seasons is 65-65 (if not it is very close to .500). He’s just not in the same class as Whittingham.

Home Field Advantage: New Mexico -2

New Mexico gets the edge because Utah has to travel and New Mexico has a solid fan base who create a decent atmosphere.

Quarterback Play: Utah -9

Utah QB Brian Johnson completes 66% of his passes and has passed for 1,625 yards with 13 TDs against only 7 INTs. Johnson has been extremely solid but he is not going to go out and throw for 365 yards and 5 TDs.

New Mexico QB Brad Gruner is 49 of 95 for 540 yards with 3 TDs and 5 INTs on the season. He might not be great, but the other New Mexico QB to see significant time this season is 50 of 75 yards with 0 TDs and 3 INTs. They just don’t have much to work with this year.

Talent: Utah -8.5

Utah has the best kicking game in the country. That gives Utah a huge advantage over their opponents.

New Mexico lacks dynamic playmakers on offense. There only offense is their star RB Rodney Ferguson who has rushed for 865 yards this season. He has rushed for over 1,100 yards each of the last 2 seasons.

Luckily Utah knows that Ferguson is the only option for New Mexico. Utah’s defense only gives up 86 ypg on the ground at an average of 2.7 ypc.

Schedule: New Mexico -4

Classic look ahead game for Utah with TCU lurking on the horizon next week, which honestly scares me to death, but I am going to grit me teeth and bear it.

Momentum: Utah -1

New Mexico is 4-5.  Utah is undefeated.

ADVANTAGE: UTAH - 17.5.  Take Utah -7.5.

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I’m officially off the Riley Skinner Dong Express after last weekend. I might be off betting the ACC altogether. That conference is schizophrenic. Other than the Wake debacle things went pretty smoothly. Let’s see if we can put together an undefeated week this week.

Cincinnati (-2.5) at UConn (Noon) - 1 UNIT

Coaching: Cincinnati -3.5

In the past I’ve always thought of UConn Coach Randy Edsall as average, but I’ve changed my feelings on him this season. I think he gets a lot more out of his talent than I previously realized.

However, Cincinnati Coach Brian Kelly is one of the best coaches in the country. He put Central Michigan on the college football map before leading Cincinnati to a 10 win season last year.

Home Field Advantage: UConn -2

Cincinnati has to travel, but UConn doesn’t get the full 3 here. Earlier this season the Bearcats went on the road to Norman, Oklahoma and went blow for blow with the Sooners. They are definitely battle tested.

Quarterback: Cincinnati -7.5

Do I love the Cincinnati QB situation? Not really. But Tony Pike is returning which should give their passing game a shot in the arm.

Do I love the UConn QB situation? No. It’s a disaster. With Tyler Lorenzen out, Zach Frazer has to carry the passing game. He simply is not very good and teams are going to force him to beat them.

Talent: Cincinnati -3

This is extremely close. Cincinnati’s run defense holds opponents to 95 yards per game.  UConn’s RB Donald Brown has been awesome so far this year, but will face his toughest test this weekend. With little to no passing game to speak of, Brown will have to earn every inch.

The difference in this game in terms of talent does not fall with offense or defense but special teams. Cincinnati has the clear edge.

Schedule: UConn -1.5

UConn gets to come home after 3 straight road games and the noon kickoff tends to favor the home team.

Momentum: Cincinnati -2

UConn has lost 2 straight games, both the games the Frazer kid has started after the Lorenzen injury. Cincinnati has won 4 straight games since losing to Oklahoma in Week 2.

ADVANTAGE: Cincinnati -12.5. Take Cincy -2.5.

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If I could think of a reason why a team would shave points in order to push, I would be under the impression Georgia purposely tried to not cover the line against Tennessee last Saturday. But it’s actually much more likely they just think I suck. Could have been worse though. We were still positive for the weekend and we’re still up for the year. Now on to the Week 8 gravy train…

Wake Forest (-2.5) at Maryland - 1 UNIT (Raycom, Noon)

Coaching: Wake Forest -4

I respect Ralph Friedgen. I think he is a good but not great coach.

By now I’ve made my tremling hard-on for Jim Grobe pretty obvious. He is a great coach. I try to curb my expectations for him because I rate him so high, but I think -4 is a conservative number in this spot.

I have noticed over the last couple of weeks that Grobe has gone back to more of the counter/misdirection look in the run game to get it going, which I believe will really help balance out the offense this week.

Home Field Advantage: Maryland -2

Byrd Stadium is not known as a place that you don’t just roll into and take home a win.  At this point, I don’t expect Wake Forest to be particularly intimidated by any crowd, but they do have to travel.

Quarterback: Wake Forest -5.5

Chris Turner is not terrible. His dad was in Ratt and completes 58.4% of his passes. But he only averages 7 yards per attempt and has thrown the same amount of TDs as INTs with 6 of each.

Riley Skinner is a gamer. He has gone 124 for 182 (68.1%) for 1,160 yards. He has also shown the ability to pick up key third downs with his feet. If you throw out the terrible performance against Navy, Skinner has been a good horse to ride (insert dong out picture here).

Talent: Wake Forest -5.5

I really like what DJ Boldin brings to the game for Wake at WR. He provides a solid go-to guy on third downs and I expect him to carry the ball at least three times this week on counters or reverses.

If you don’t know about Wake’s defense, you shouldn’t be betting on college football.  (this just in: they are extremely opportunistic and will force turnovers).

Maryland’s talent at the WR position will not much up with the talented Wake Forest secondary. Halfway through the season Maryland’s top 2 WRs only have a total of 134 yards each.

Schedule: Even

Maryland is coming off a bye week. Wake Forest got an extra couple days to prepare by playing last Thursday night.

Momentum: Wake -1

Maryland got beat 31-0 by Virginia two weeks ago. I normally would expect Maryland to bounce back but the Terps have been a deceptive team this year. They caught Cal still during the first half of a noon east coast kickoff. Then they were dead to rights against Clemson, until Clemson self-destructed in the second half. Maryland could easily be 2-4, and I feel that they will play more like a 2-4 team than a 4-2 team.

ADVANTAGE: Wake Forest -14. Take the Deacons -2.5

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In case you haven’t noticed of cooled off a bit over the last couple of weeks. We’re still in the black for the season and hopefully we’ll look back at Week 5 and Week 6 as aberrations. Time to get back to winning…

Utah (-23) at Wyoming - 1 UNIT (2PM)

Coaching:  Utah -4

Utah Coach Kyle Whittingham always seems to have his team ready to play. They display all the qualities of a well coached, disciplined team.

Wyoming Coach Joe Glenn is an underrated guy who knows how to coach, but he simply doesn’t have the talent.

Home Field Advantage: Wyoming -1

Wyoming gets the slight edge because Utah has to travel.

Quarterback Play: Utah -13.5

Utah QB Brian Johnson completes 66% of his passes and has passed for 1,330 yards with 10 TDs against only 6 INTs. Johnson can also make plays with his legs if necessary; he has already had a 56 yard TD rush.

Wyoming QB Dax Crum is the worst. Last week Wyoming went with Karsten Sween instead of Crum.  He is the second worst. He was 9 of 19 for 71 yards with an INT.

Talent: Utah -21

Utah is better than Wyoming at everything by a lot.

The key to this game though lies with the Utah special teams and the Wyoming offense.  Wyoming averages 9 ppg and it’s not like they played three games on the road in the SEC to start the season.

Wyoming’s inept offense is going to have to drive the ball a long way when they do get their hands on the ball because Utah has the best punter in the country. When your offense sucks, it’s difficult to score when you have to go on 80 yard drives to do so.

Schedule: EVEN

Nothing significant of note.

Momentum: Utah -5

Wyoming has lost three straight games while being shut out in two of those games. Utah has won 6 straight games. They know if they take care of business that their season ending game against BYU should be a BCS play-in game.

ADVANTAGE UTAH - 42.5.  Take Utah -23.

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I got beat like a bitch last weekend, which led to some interesting text messages Friday night after Louisville-Connecticut. My favorite simply read, “You’re a fucking idiot.”

This is a tough week because you have to decide whether some of last weekend’s performances were simply anomalies or if they represent certain team’s actual talent levels. How do you feel about USC, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Wake Forest, etc. going forward?

I recommend treading lightly and start firing away again next week.

Here are two Overs I really like because if the teams in these games can simply score 10 points less than their season averages they will both still go over.

Penn State at Purdue (Over 58) - 1 UNIT (ESPN, Noon)

1) Purdue averages 30.3 ppg.

2) Of their 400 yards a game of total offense, Purdue averages 278 of those passing.

3) Purdue gives up over 26 ppg.

4) Penn State averages over 50 ppg.

5) Penn State averages 515 yards of total offense per game, evenly distributed between the run and the pass.

6) The combined scoring average of these two teams is 80.3 ppg.

Booth’s Prediction: Penn State 42,  Purdue 24. Take the Over at 58.

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So who else liked Oregon State and the under last night?

Last weekend was our first weekend in the red — albiet just barely (-0.2 units) — so it’s time to come strong. And nothing says strong like my first 2 unit pick of the season…

Connecticut at Louisville (-3.5) - 2 UNITS (ESPN2, 8PM Friday)

Coaching:  Louisville -3

Louisville gets the three point edge because of new Defensive Coordinator Ron English. He has changed the scheme, attitude, and productivity of the Cardinals defense.

Home Field Advantage: Louisville -3

Louisville gets the standard three point edge for home field advantage. This is a fairly long trip for UConn and Louisville fans create a great college football atmosphere, despite their stadium being named after deliver pizza.

Quarterback: Louisville -7

UConn QBTyler Lorenzen is nothing more than a caretaker. He doesn’t have a strong arm and he doesn’t have the ability to stretch the field.

Louisville’s QB was absolutely pathetic against Kentucky in the season opener. I mean horrible. However, his performance did not reflect his talent level. In the two games since the season opener he has completed 66% of his passes with 4 TDs and 0 Ints.

Talent:  Louisville -3

UConn boasts the leading rusher in the nation, Donald Brown. The problem is the Huskies have no compliment for Brown. They’ve even recently resorted to giving DBs a shot at receiver in an attempt to create some much needed offensive fire power.  UConn’s defense looked solid on paper prior to the Baylor game, but in that contest they were exposed. If Baylor’s QB could have hit more wide open recievers UConn would have lost that game by double digits.

Louisville’s defense has looked extremely good this season. They’re only giving up 42 yards a game on the ground and 200 yards a game through the air. This is where the hidden value in this line rests.

Schedule: Louisville -0.5

This is the first of three huge road games for UConn (Louisville, North Carolina, Rutgers) while Louisville is playing their 4^th straight home game.

Momentum: Louisville -1

After getting a hard fought win against Baylor last Friday night this looks to be a classic letdown spot for UConn. Louisville has bounced back nicely from their season opening disappointment against Kentucky and the team has been playing extremely well in their last two games.

ADVANTAGE: Louisville -17.5. Take Louisville -3.5.

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First Chink in the armor last weekend with the New Mexico State pick. I’m sure most of you were expecting me to at worst push, not actually lose a game. My apologies. We’re still a healthy 7-1 (+5.9 units) with plans to capitalize even further this weekend on four higher profile games.

Wake Forest (+5) at Florida State - 1 UNIT (ESPN 2, 7PM)

Coaching:  Wake Forest -5.5

I like Bobby Bowden as a coach probably more than I should but he doesn’t really do anything anymore except wear cool hats and use funny words in interviews.

Jim Grobe might just be the best coach in the country. I think you could argue -5.5 isn’t giving Wake Forest enough credit in this spot, but I’m trying to remain conservative with my numbers.

Home Field Advantage: FSU -3

Doak Campbell is not an easy place to win. Normally I would give Florida State more than the standard three points, but two years ago when these two teams played in Tallahassee Wake Forest won 30-0.

Quarterback: Wake Forest -6

Christian Ponder is a better option than Drew Weatherford but he has to prove it against a legitimate defense before his numbers become relevant.

Riley Skinner has looked superb so far this season (and I’m not talking dong photos) against legitimate competition going 59 of 79 for 487 yards with 5 TDs and 0 INTs.

Talent: Wake Forest -3

When Bobby Bowden was asked why his team has fallen off since the late 90s his answer was that he doesn’t have the same caliber athletes. Answers like that are why I like Bowden. I think he is right.

I feel the hidden value in this line rests with how much Ponder will struggle against the solid/opportunistic Deacons defense.

Schedule: Wake Forest -1

Wake Forest has already played a road game. Wake Forest has already played a team with legitimate D-I talent.

Florida State is taking a huge step up in competition in this spot.

Momentum:  FSU -3

The Seminoles have gotten some confidence and rhythm in their two scrimmage-like games to start the season. Also, that 30-0 drumming will not be forgotten by the upperclassmen still on the team. I expect Florida State will be ready for this one.

ADVANTAGE: Wake Forest -9.5. Take the Deacons +5.

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