Unfortunately, due to time constraints and work conflicts we will no longer be featuring the H-Man’s college football picks.
Everyone involved with NextRound.net contributes during their personal time, and the H-Man was doing us a significant favor by providing his picks on a weekly basis. We thank him for the time contributed this year.
Some days are just not your day. Last Saturday was pretty disappointing. We’ll try and rebound this week. Not a lot on the slate I like, so we’re going to keep it short and sweet and hope to right the ship.
Rutgers (+1.5) v. Connecticut 1 Unit 7:15PM EST
Rutgers looked terrible last week against West Virginia, and UConn defeated recent media darling South Florida. This line is an overreaction. Rutgers is the better team and should win this game.
Boston College (-7) v. Florida State 1 Unit 8PM EST
Florida State still gets too much respect from the oddsmakers, while Boston College continues to be undervalued. The Seminoles abysmal offense should once again prove to be ineffective against a decent defense.
As long as it’s not raining, at night, on the road, against a top 10 defense, during a nationally televised Thursday night game, Matt Ryan is pretty good.
Lean: Troy (+16.5) v Georgia. If Troy’s quarterback is healthy and plays the entire game, this line is too hard.
Colorado v. Texas Tech (Over 61.5) 2 Units 12PM EST
Colorado gives up 23.8 ppg. They also turn the ball over a lot and should give Texas Tech a short field.
Outside of the turnovers, Colorado’s offense is better than people think. Take away their 16-6 loss to Florida State and their 19-14 loss to Kansas, Colorado has scored over 20 points against every opponent this season. Texas Tech’s defense is nowhere near the class of FSU’s or Kansas’. The Raiders are giving up 23.1 ppg.
I think you know what Texas Tech’s offense can do, especially at home against a sub par defense.
California v. Arizona State (Over 60.5) 2 Units 10PM EST
Cal averages 35.1 ppg and 420 ypg. ASU averages 37.7 ppg and 462 ypg. You do the math.
I don’t think either of these teams has a defense that warrants a total less than 70. Cal’s defense gives up 26.1 ppg. ASU’s defense has been much better, but they have yet to face an offense in the same league as Cal’s.
Miami Florida (+5) v. Florida State 2 units 3:35PM EST
Both of these offenses are a mess. This will be a low-scoring game, so points should be at a premium.
But more importantly, I think Miami is better than Florida State, especially defensively, and the Hurricanes should be plenty motivated in this one.
East Carolina (-6) v. N.C. State 2 units 4:35PM EST
I really thought this line would be in the double digits. People still haven’t caught on to how awful NC State is, they may not win another game this season. Conversely, ECU continues to be undervalued, and they’re better than NC State in every facet of the game. Hopefully, ECU won’t have to kick any field goals.
Oklahoma State (+3.5) v. Nebraska - 2 Units 12:30PM EST
I think the wrong team’s favored here. I was high on Nebraska going into this year, but I was dead wrong. Their defense blows, they’ve struggled to maintain a consistent running game, and Keller has committed way too many turnovers. Meanwhile, after some early-season struggles, Oklahoma State is really coming around, especially offensively.
Wyoming (-3.5) v. New Mexico - 2 Units 2PM EST
I really like this Wyoming team. I expected this line to be around six or seven. Wyoming has statistically dominated all of their opponents, and last week’s 24-21 over TCU really wasn’t as close as the final score would indicate. New Mexico is a decent team, but they’re getting way too much respect here.
Central Michigan at Ball State (Over 67) - 2 Units 12PM EST
Bet this one ASAP as it’s going to move up. 67 is available at Sportsbook, so go ahead and get that in. Basically, both of these defenses are fucking atrocious, and the offenses have the personnel to take advantage of it. I thought this over under should be around 75, so 67 has plenty of value.
Rutgers (-4) v. Cincinnati - 1 unit 8:05PM EST
I don’t think Cincinnati is nearly as good as their record and ranking indicates. They’ve played nobody and have been the beneficiary of a large turnover deficit. Rutgers loss to Maryland last week was inexcusable, but because of that we’re getting a more manageable spread. I believe Rutgers is a better team than Cincinnati, and they should be focused here.
Air Force (+120 moneyline) v. Navy - 2 Units 1:05PM EST
If you’re able to get this line at +3 or better, then it’s fine to take the spread. If it’s under three (it’s currently +2.5 most places), I would recommend just going ahead and taking Air Force on the moneyline.
Basically, I think Air Force is much better than Navy at this juncture. Navy’s defense is atrocious, they were gashed by Duke last week and have really struggled all season. The matchups favor Air Force here, as they are much better defensively against the run than Navy.
Cal (+6) v. Oregon - 1 Unit 3:30PM EST
This spread is fishier than George O’Leary’s resume. Oregon does have a strong home field advantage, and the home team has historically dominated this series. However, I believe that Cal is better than Oregon both offensively and defensively. The Bears offense has plenty of options, and should have no problems against an extremely suspect Ducks defense. I expect Oregon to have some success offensively, but I’m not sure they’ll be able to keep up with Cal.
Due to some scheduling conflicts, going forward the H-Man’s full weekly picks will be up by Friday afternoon. If the H-Man has a pick he likes for a Thursday night game we will post before the game on Thursday. If he has a pick he likes but is concerned about line movement, we will post it earlier in the week as well. Either way, check for updates. It all varies week to week.
Today, the H-Man has an early pick where the line may move. As of this typing it’s still +21 on Sportsbook.com and Bodog, but Pinnacle has already moved it so it may be moving everywhere soon. There may or may not be more picks tomorrow as the H-Man is not loving this week’s slate.
Washington (+21) v. Southern Cal - 2 Units
Southern Cal’s defense is spectacular. Their offense is good but not great. There’s some natural line inflation here due to it being USC and the fact that Pete Carroll could talk a member of Al Queda to come play football in Los Angeles.
Washington has a young, scrappy quarterback and their game with Ohio State was a lot closer than the final score indicated. The H-Man likes for Washington to stay inside of 21.
Idaho (-3) v. Northern Illinois - Two Units
This Northern Illinois team sucks. Out loud. They’re 0-3, with a home loss to 1-AA Southern Illinois and a home loss to Eastern Michigan, whom I had pegged preseason as one of the worst teams in 1-A. Idaho has been surprisingly scrappy, not getting completely blown out by USC and staying competitive with Washington State in a game which was closer than the final score indicated.
On the field, this game plays to Idaho’s strengths. Idaho has run well against some decent defenses. Northern Illinois has given up over 200 rushing yards to each of it’s 1-A opponents. Conversely, Northern Illinois’s offense is an abortion. They have no passing game to speak of. And Idaho’s defense has allowed less than 4 yards per carry, so I don’t expect Northern Illinois’s running game to have a ton of success. This game is under the radar for good reason, but I don’t think this spread adequately represents how these teams have performed this season. Fear the potato.
I’m running slightly behind this week, so I’m going to move through the rest a little more quickly.
One pick for tonight’s game and then I’ll be back for more tomorrow.
Miami (-2) v. Texas A&M - Two Units
Texas A&M is overrated in my opinion. So far this season they’ve beaten Montana St., Fresno St., and UL-Monroe, all at home. They are not battled tested. A primetime road game at Miami will put them in a difficult spot. Miami is not a bad team, the wheels just came off against Oklahoma. That debacle has led to an overreaction by the public and the oddsmakers.
On the field this game plays to Miami’s strengths. Miami can stop the run, which is A&M’s strong point. Miami’s QB play has been awful, but the Canes can still run the ball. A&M’s defense is giving up 151 ypg on the ground against vastly inferior competition, so Miami should be able to move the ball with the run and keep their QB out of third and long situations.
Historically, Franchione has not impressed in big road games. In my opinion, he doesn’t buck the trend tonight.
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