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After a disastrously rough week a lot of people get shell shocked and start second guessing themselves. Fuck that. As the great JK taught me: “When the going gets tough, the tough reload.”
Going forward I will make two promises:
1) I am out of the UConn business. In games involving UConn I am 1-2 for -2.3 units.
2) I am out of the New Mexico State business. In games involving the Aggies I am 0-3 for -3.3 units.
Now let’s get back on track…
Utah (-7.5) at New Mexico - 1 UNIT (9:30PM EST)
Coaching: Utah -5
Utah Coach Kyle Whittingham can flat out coach. He is one of the few guys who gets solid play in all three phases.
New Mexico Coach Rocky Long is the epitome of an average coach. I actually think that his career record in 11 seasons is 65-65 (if not it is very close to .500). He’s just not in the same class as Whittingham.
Home Field Advantage: New Mexico -2
New Mexico gets the edge because Utah has to travel and New Mexico has a solid fan base who create a decent atmosphere.
Quarterback Play: Utah -9
Utah QB Brian Johnson completes 66% of his passes and has passed for 1,625 yards with 13 TDs against only 7 INTs. Johnson has been extremely solid but he is not going to go out and throw for 365 yards and 5 TDs.
New Mexico QB Brad Gruner is 49 of 95 for 540 yards with 3 TDs and 5 INTs on the season. He might not be great, but the other New Mexico QB to see significant time this season is 50 of 75 yards with 0 TDs and 3 INTs. They just don’t have much to work with this year.
Talent: Utah -8.5
Utah has the best kicking game in the country. That gives Utah a huge advantage over their opponents.
New Mexico lacks dynamic playmakers on offense. There only offense is their star RB Rodney Ferguson who has rushed for 865 yards this season. He has rushed for over 1,100 yards each of the last 2 seasons.
Luckily Utah knows that Ferguson is the only option for New Mexico. Utah’s defense only gives up 86 ypg on the ground at an average of 2.7 ypc.
Schedule: New Mexico -4
Classic look ahead game for Utah with TCU lurking on the horizon next week, which honestly scares me to death, but I am going to grit me teeth and bear it.
Momentum: Utah -1
New Mexico is 4-5. Utah is undefeated.
ADVANTAGE: UTAH - 17.5. Take Utah -7.5.
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